Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97391 4148 32 62 9 1 0 0
OW 0 228 24 284 32 0 0 0
VODI 0 56 20 319 237 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 56 555 92 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 289 2466 309 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 378 1897 209
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97388 4219 12 18 13 1 0 0
OW 0 309 52 232 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 50 21 362 256 10 0 0
ODI 0 1 1 37 544 145 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 109 2134 1215 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 33 1216 699
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97378 4377 17 37 11 0 0 0
OW 0 233 48 137 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 19 363 120 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 629 79 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 284 2033 875 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 388 1668 314
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97728 4025 18 14 2 0 0 0
OW 0 221 38 129 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 13 291 193 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 568 94 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 357 1331 1696 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 200 1588 525
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97728 4008 19 19 3 0 0 0
OW 0 230 41 122 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 9 289 204 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 524 145 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 395 1269 1646 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 208 1638 525

Date: 2018-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97648 4064 22 18 2 0 0 0
OW 0 207 37 154 20 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 14 267 224 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 514 144 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 247 1227 2084 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 641 1488 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97648 4027 21 27 2 0 0 0
OW 0 229 36 151 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 15 254 248 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 56 456 192 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 280 1191 2034 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 627 1533 0

Date: 2018-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98186 3493 11 12 1 0 0 0
OW 0 206 38 104 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 16 354 88 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 541 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 262 3212 653 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 937 893 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 98186 3435 17 20 2 0 0 0
OW 0 240 32 170 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 16 251 231 36 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 400 222 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 236 2799 607 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1126 939 0

Date: 2018-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97527 4181 15 18 4 0 0 0
OW 0 146 37 153 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 18 266 157 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 453 106 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 329 3791 31 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1550 196 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97527 4094 25 27 6 0 0 0
OW 0 202 24 193 20 8 0 0
VODI 0 51 20 237 258 40 0 0
ODI 0 2 1 49 404 242 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 272 3402 23 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1769 204 0

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97929 3786 10 17 1 0 0 0
OW 0 210 36 106 9 3 0 0
VODI 0 37 19 349 110 14 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 475 93 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 194 3220 650 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1477 278 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97929 3737 17 23 4 4 0 0
OW 0 219 28 158 15 7 0 0
VODI 0 72 19 284 244 34 6 0
ODI 0 5 1 76 385 235 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 141 3047 581 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1480 339 0


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