Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13047 8301 59 321 31 0 0 0
OW 0 1167 70 285 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 287 76 1558 380 9 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 427 2498 115 2 0
CDI 0 14 1 45 2342 4338 887 0
VCDI 0 10 1 32 380 3790 4896 442
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 13553 8148 54 306 22 0 0 0
OW 7 1130 51 244 60 1 0 0
VODI 0 404 100 1407 394 10 0 0
ODI 0 9 7 559 2154 137 0 0
CDI 0 13 3 79 2632 4005 861 0
VCDI 0 25 2 51 435 3492 4389 1122
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 14758 7647 49 274 12 0 0 0
OW 1 854 96 316 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 173 72 1704 470 13 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 154 2438 289 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 34 2588 3890 505 0
VCDI 0 11 1 25 158 2635 4823 1821
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15201 7412 68 282 41 0 0 0
OW 0 883 90 424 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 132 49 1538 526 12 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 180 2152 120 6 0
CDI 0 5 1 74 2734 3693 658 0
VCDI 0 2 2 53 221 3449 4995 804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15201 7599 85 315 36 0 0 0
OW 0 680 64 423 56 0 0 0
VODI 0 149 58 1474 524 13 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 217 2148 117 3 0
CDI 0 4 2 71 2730 3676 747 0
VCDI 0 2 1 51 231 3468 4909 804

Date: 2018-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15776 7236 56 172 13 0 0 0
OW 0 864 78 547 68 0 0 0
VODI 0 137 48 1112 844 2 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 111 1918 220 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 51 2123 4109 846 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 134 3696 4820 807
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15776 7489 76 249 15 0 0 0
OW 0 604 67 482 74 0 0 0
VODI 0 143 37 1082 869 10 0 0
ODI 0 6 3 129 1849 259 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 52 2130 3986 825 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 163 3772 4841 807

Date: 2018-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15496 7726 56 168 3 0 0 0
OW 0 827 73 309 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 126 57 1586 312 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 156 2973 62 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 1533 4340 584 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 78 3680 5630 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15496 7777 74 269 16 0 0 0
OW 0 694 58 466 88 0 0 0
VODI 0 205 53 1208 707 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 223 1786 114 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 2084 3391 1266 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 243 4564 4943 0

Date: 2018-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15436 7960 47 167 5 0 0 0
OW 0 1031 60 297 37 4 0 0
VODI 0 427 76 1247 306 15 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 336 2449 96 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 81 1796 3551 947 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 6753 2706 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15436 8047 57 214 24 0 0 0
OW 0 937 59 443 83 4 0 0
VODI 0 410 62 1016 498 48 0 0
ODI 0 31 7 306 1554 89 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 124 2309 3350 967 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 140 6928 2686 0

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15316 7819 52 206 7 0 0 0
OW 0 1301 56 314 59 4 0 0
VODI 0 484 71 1095 343 11 0 0
ODI 0 67 12 392 2166 110 2 0
CDI 0 14 2 113 2883 2261 840 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 683 6895 2288 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 15316 8031 59 299 42 0 0 0
OW 0 1081 47 345 136 8 0 0
VODI 0 464 72 887 474 44 0 0
ODI 0 78 8 389 1384 93 20 0
CDI 0 17 4 131 3138 1987 1032 0
VCDI 0 14 3 69 967 7149 2078 0


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