Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-08-23

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120521 18712 138 495 40 1 0 0
OW 0 1941 148 936 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 527 138 2927 995 14 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 892 5010 214 2 0
CDI 0 14 1 128 5118 10201 1495 0
VCDI 0 10 1 32 380 5464 9788 651
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120605 19072 108 408 35 1 0 0
OW 7 2099 164 862 114 1 0 0
VODI 0 627 159 2886 1051 21 0 0
ODI 0 10 8 1143 4436 418 0 0
CDI 0 13 3 199 4528 9781 3092 49
VCDI 0 25 2 51 435 4265 7634 2736
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 123147 18087 81 341 23 0 0 0
OW 1 1797 232 671 46 0 0 0
VODI 0 353 141 3680 1057 16 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 289 6332 781 0 0
CDI 0 8 1 34 3185 9137 1791 0
VCDI 0 11 1 25 158 4891 8590 2135
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124503 17345 100 311 43 0 0 0
OW 0 2011 182 744 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 306 134 3612 1149 14 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 425 5847 520 6 0
CDI 0 5 1 74 3428 8081 2772 0
VCDI 0 2 2 53 221 4911 8834 1329
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124503 17664 124 355 39 0 0 0
OW 0 1700 159 804 71 0 0 0
VODI 0 299 132 3445 1170 18 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 493 5725 490 3 0
CDI 0 4 2 71 3527 8021 2812 0
VCDI 0 2 1 51 231 4997 8797 1329

Date: 2018-08-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124911 17366 96 233 15 0 0 0
OW 15 1986 184 976 128 0 0 0
VODI 2 289 124 3200 1587 9 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 349 5281 790 0 0
CDI 0 1 1 51 2629 8817 3665 0
VCDI 0 0 0 70 134 4950 8321 862
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124903 17747 130 346 17 0 0 0
OW 17 1580 164 998 124 0 0 0
VODI 8 313 107 3006 1686 19 0 0
ODI 0 6 4 408 5004 782 5 0
CDI 0 1 1 52 2780 8634 3445 0
VCDI 0 0 0 69 163 5131 8536 862

Date: 2018-08-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125796 17317 90 208 4 0 0 0
OW 2 1688 196 711 39 0 0 0
VODI 0 192 105 3624 834 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 259 7281 254 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 2112 11591 1506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 78 5439 7654 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 125779 17097 124 403 18 0 0 0
OW 19 1708 148 1096 151 0 0 0
VODI 0 389 118 2791 1839 49 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 459 4845 581 5 0
CDI 0 0 0 77 3252 9350 2301 0
VCDI 0 0 0 41 243 7306 6854 0

Date: 2018-08-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124968 18528 94 271 11 0 0 0
OW 0 1715 184 921 99 4 0 0
VODI 0 540 125 3264 833 34 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 609 5968 498 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 81 3494 10776 978 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 15 10003 3014 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124950 18247 125 348 30 0 0 0
OW 18 1910 152 1273 141 12 0 0
VODI 0 600 120 2705 1411 91 0 0
ODI 0 33 8 671 4309 618 0 0
CDI 0 7 2 124 4374 9542 990 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 155 11052 3002 0

Date: 2018-08-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124791 18547 105 280 8 0 0 0
OW 0 2206 175 891 119 7 0 0
VODI 0 658 131 2926 1004 34 2 0
ODI 0 67 12 670 5343 540 8 0
CDI 0 14 2 113 4527 8866 1490 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 712 10037 2763 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124776 18408 113 374 46 4 0 0
OW 15 2146 161 1086 203 15 0 0
VODI 0 824 135 2466 1368 78 6 0
ODI 0 83 9 754 4024 664 30 0
CDI 0 17 4 131 4967 7719 1613 0
VCDI 0 14 3 69 1105 11004 2614 0


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