Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96319 5091 41 90 2 4 0 0
OW 0 160 30 302 65 2 0 0
VODI 0 45 7 297 294 6 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 55 535 216 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 282 2603 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 799 1727 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97691 3671 47 126 3 5 0 0
OW 0 156 27 344 91 2 0 0
VODI 0 53 8 206 397 12 0 0
ODI 0 18 5 51 453 329 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 367 1518 1273 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 351 1440 444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97623 3891 30 51 3 2 0 0
OW 0 144 46 275 37 1 0 0
VODI 0 32 10 357 165 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 62 618 102 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 171 1414 1025 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 70 1901 1067
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97322 4164 39 65 9 1 0 0
OW 0 188 28 303 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 16 313 254 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 535 101 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 260 1714 930 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 266 1955 527
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97322 4182 42 108 14 1 0 0
OW 0 162 22 261 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 19 305 257 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 485 141 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 301 1639 975 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 298 1910 527

Date: 2018-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97666 3900 30 53 11 2 0 0
OW 0 230 28 302 32 1 0 0
VODI 0 59 28 305 281 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 499 182 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 140 1542 1470 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1061 1132 93
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97666 3927 35 95 17 1 0 0
OW 0 197 26 258 34 2 0 0
VODI 0 64 23 304 296 15 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 49 435 205 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 181 1563 1452 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1007 1147 93

Date: 2018-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97465 4269 11 21 10 1 0 0
OW 0 252 58 132 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 13 405 123 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 27 694 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 120 2724 269 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 71 1647 671
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97465 4164 18 52 12 1 0 0
OW 0 328 37 147 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 53 26 352 269 22 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 34 503 192 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 136 2629 917 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 37 999 671

Date: 2018-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97833 3894 14 42 11 0 0 0
OW 0 223 45 131 10 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 15 341 141 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 595 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 356 2055 879 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 231 1841 300
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97833 3773 13 35 11 0 0 0
OW 0 286 39 204 39 2 0 0
VODI 0 81 22 294 292 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 425 236 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 346 2082 1515 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 21 1205 299

Date: 2018-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97689 4042 26 17 2 0 0 0
OW 0 222 35 128 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 12 299 200 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 528 128 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 297 984 2125 80
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 244 1474 492
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 97689 3879 22 52 11 0 0 0
OW 0 321 31 139 78 5 0 0
VODI 0 76 20 252 303 68 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 344 218 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 309 1052 2772 97
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 19 741 475


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