Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-08-16

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117588 17740 166 611 60 4 0 0
OW 1 2424 165 1354 188 2 0 0
VODI 0 684 119 3032 1981 27 0 0
ODI 0 30 7 408 5640 1614 19 0
CDI 0 2 0 18 1802 10236 1498 0
VCDI 0 1 2 16 236 6404 12132 837
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119763 16140 149 605 126 5 0 0
OW 19 2614 170 1232 240 2 0 0
VODI 0 778 128 2537 2366 76 0 0
ODI 0 38 13 471 4702 2072 42 0
CDI 0 2 0 26 1954 8398 4147 0
VCDI 0 1 2 18 275 3050 12463 2424
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120968 17504 127 447 43 2 0 0
OW 1 1759 206 947 100 1 0 0
VODI 0 348 122 2676 1223 13 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 405 5882 429 0 0
CDI 0 3 1 8 3177 10031 2207 0
VCDI 0 3 0 12 110 3682 11998 2610
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119922 19162 147 446 66 1 0 0
OW 0 1910 156 954 111 0 0 0
VODI 0 506 133 2920 907 4 0 0
ODI 0 9 0 984 4992 197 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 100 5662 8495 2091 0
VCDI 0 14 3 19 319 5784 9920 1109
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119922 19620 164 533 75 1 0 0
OW 0 1479 146 947 102 0 0 0
VODI 0 474 125 2858 890 7 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 940 4715 300 1 0
CDI 0 1 1 127 5866 8249 2095 0
VCDI 0 17 3 18 409 5924 9915 1109

Date: 2018-08-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120588 18794 136 484 49 2 0 0
OW 3 2006 149 913 125 1 0 0
VODI 0 579 147 2959 979 11 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 1135 4556 411 5 0
CDI 0 16 1 191 4626 9233 3141 0
VCDI 0 18 3 40 467 6513 8145 618
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120589 19327 154 564 60 1 0 0
OW 2 1494 143 960 117 2 0 0
VODI 0 550 129 2824 988 24 0 0
ODI 0 11 6 1126 4375 473 13 0
CDI 0 15 1 205 4680 9097 2984 0
VCDI 0 20 3 43 582 6574 8294 618

Date: 2018-08-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121521 19196 97 293 36 1 0 0
OW 1 1854 206 640 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 309 135 3982 829 6 0 0
ODI 0 6 1 286 7121 409 0 0
CDI 0 13 1 26 2475 10020 1523 0
VCDI 0 15 1 33 157 3362 9467 2993
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 121522 18934 121 451 49 1 0 0
OW 0 1771 148 819 137 3 0 0
VODI 0 631 160 2683 1095 56 0 0
ODI 0 22 9 1026 4282 471 12 0
CDI 0 12 2 237 4537 9203 3558 66
VCDI 0 23 1 44 551 4064 7420 2927

Date: 2018-08-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124043 17488 83 359 27 0 0 0
OW 1 1937 194 666 64 3 0 0
VODI 0 352 140 3767 1007 21 0 0
ODI 0 7 0 374 6208 527 1 0
CDI 0 8 1 54 3281 9066 1664 0
VCDI 0 10 2 39 210 6737 8030 677
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124042 17035 94 435 54 8 0 0
OW 2 1883 137 739 123 12 0 0
VODI 0 821 173 2477 1074 56 0 0
ODI 0 35 13 1241 3664 556 0 0
CDI 0 12 0 311 5254 9636 3454 43
VCDI 0 16 3 56 628 6086 6241 634

Date: 2018-08-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124986 17101 103 279 14 0 0 0
OW 12 2032 180 823 93 0 0 0
VODI 2 327 131 3547 1236 7 0 0
ODI 0 8 1 359 5610 627 3 0
CDI 0 3 1 64 2914 8083 3452 80
VCDI 0 1 1 71 163 4269 8752 1713
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 124948 16518 113 428 49 0 0 0
OW 52 1763 116 846 213 5 0 0
VODI 0 1120 163 1962 1141 99 0 0
ODI 0 63 22 1397 3303 544 87 0
CDI 0 6 1 413 4538 7723 6370 120
VCDI 0 2 2 97 786 4615 5750 1673


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