Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-08-09

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-13

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 680 3182 26 32 0 0 0 0
OW 0 470 69 290 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 117 45 1368 381 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 128 3314 345 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 799 7385 1115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 18 2085 10501 4546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 680 2841 40 94 0 0 0 0
OW 0 526 41 435 48 0 0 0
VODI 0 375 53 1054 1012 2 0 0
ODI 0 27 6 231 2217 1341 31 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 1178 6151 2703 86
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 2323 8882 4460

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 570 11 44 0 0 0 0
OW 0 33 6 40 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 2 52 80 4 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 10 228 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 171 946 192 0
VCDI 0 2 2 14 42 374 236 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 561 10 56 26 0 0 0
OW 0 28 7 41 48 7 0 0
VODI 0 24 2 34 140 31 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 14 112 82 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 4 164 752 226 0
VCDI 0 2 2 14 55 483 202 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19 3213 28 79 0 0 0 0
OW 0 521 48 195 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 71 36 619 163 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 1167 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 391 1730 406 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 399 823 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19 3288 35 151 2 0 0 0
OW 0 383 38 222 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 133 36 448 283 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 3 126 658 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 736 1521 390 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 605 839 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2768 2029 21 82 0 0 0 0
OW 0 328 18 109 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 22 6 111 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 93 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2768 1948 25 115 0 0 0 0
OW 0 320 11 83 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 111 9 108 72 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 34 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 106 2092 11 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 392 61 194 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 25 706 214 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 1412 117 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 1545 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 26 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 106 1786 17 52 0 0 0 0
OW 0 509 48 219 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 222 28 602 882 73 0 0
ODI 0 25 4 63 832 1017 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 581 98 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3038 2209 11 34 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 30 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3038 2182 7 25 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 4 41 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5656 669 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5654 669 1 2 0 0 0 0
OW 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9199 1915 10 22 0 3 0 0
OW 0 77 19 108 28 3 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 104 44 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 135 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9199 1919 18 88 15 4 0 0
OW 0 69 10 89 47 2 0 0
VODI 0 6 4 59 74 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 76 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5327 380 1 2 6 0 0 0
OW 0 1 0 1 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 20 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 35 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5327 381 1 2 11 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 7 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 30 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6933 1356 20 159 39 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 50 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6933 1356 20 176 47 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 33 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 19 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20088 114 2 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 20088 114 2 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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