Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-08-09

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112370 18306 187 1048 166 6 0 0
OW 1 2697 216 1987 289 17 0 0
VODI 0 809 107 2669 2923 16 0 0
ODI 0 40 13 497 6054 3304 322 0
CDI 0 19 4 4 2126 7809 5136 705
VCDI 0 1 0 4 106 3536 10756 2798
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115290 16603 169 927 180 3 0 0
OW 5 2903 185 1770 336 2 0 0
VODI 0 807 120 2659 3150 34 0 0
ODI 0 59 21 619 5823 3032 478 0
CDI 0 13 3 5 2032 7530 6396 23
VCDI 0 1 0 9 293 2737 10984 1847
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 116707 17345 177 739 99 3 0 0
OW 0 2192 182 1377 155 8 0 0
VODI 0 469 116 3497 1299 12 0 0
ODI 0 22 1 333 7299 773 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 3 1986 9795 1153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 158 2701 13574 4861
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117406 17493 165 699 84 12 0 0
OW 0 2341 180 1332 199 8 0 0
VODI 1 664 132 3092 1835 22 0 0
ODI 0 31 5 406 5909 1591 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 24 1846 10092 1224 0
VCDI 0 0 1 18 235 5032 12306 2661
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117406 17965 214 969 119 16 0 0
OW 1 1833 130 1106 166 6 0 0
VODI 0 695 133 3047 2124 33 0 0
ODI 0 36 5 413 5358 1670 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 18 2101 10071 1424 0
VCDI 0 0 1 18 240 4961 12106 2661

Date: 2018-08-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119712 15857 160 722 53 5 0 0
OW 31 2500 149 1286 196 3 0 0
VODI 0 715 147 2668 2298 48 0 0
ODI 0 28 9 414 5152 1926 9 0
CDI 0 2 0 21 1693 9458 2888 0
VCDI 0 1 2 20 244 4296 13459 876
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119722 16512 181 950 82 4 0 0
OW 21 1789 131 1125 225 4 0 0
VODI 0 773 144 2617 2496 80 0 0
ODI 0 26 9 398 4535 2018 16 0
CDI 0 2 0 22 2051 9454 2889 0
VCDI 0 1 2 19 247 4176 13451 876

Date: 2018-08-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119993 17729 142 470 45 3 0 0
OW 3 1822 221 1018 96 3 0 0
VODI 0 284 117 2997 923 11 0 0
ODI 0 2 0 233 6384 530 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 1473 11626 1848 0
VCDI 0 2 2 14 60 2862 11586 4546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119991 17045 176 766 101 4 0 0
OW 5 1862 159 1170 239 9 0 0
VODI 0 871 132 2334 2485 138 0 0
ODI 0 57 13 439 3959 2468 94 0
CDI 0 2 0 12 2080 9005 3417 86
VCDI 0 2 2 14 117 3411 9923 4460

Date: 2018-08-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120110 18701 131 477 63 1 0 0
OW 0 1902 166 894 147 0 0 0
VODI 0 473 131 2681 1090 10 0 0
ODI 0 7 3 1009 5063 311 0 0
CDI 0 5 2 93 4673 9859 1189 0
VCDI 0 10 1 26 267 5502 10287 1764
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120110 17637 144 694 122 1 0 0
OW 0 2197 126 949 291 2 0 0
VODI 0 1146 132 2597 2057 54 0 0
ODI 0 97 28 865 4677 1204 15 0
CDI 0 8 2 48 3808 9020 2692 113
VCDI 0 13 2 27 348 5402 8769 1651

Date: 2018-08-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120521 18712 138 495 40 1 0 0
OW 0 1941 148 936 104 0 0 0
VODI 0 527 138 2927 995 14 0 0
ODI 0 8 2 892 5010 214 2 0
CDI 0 14 1 128 5118 10201 1495 0
VCDI 0 10 1 32 380 5464 9788 651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 120521 17790 143 765 111 1 0 0
OW 0 2178 122 1063 418 4 0 0
VODI 0 1118 135 2638 2045 57 0 0
ODI 0 97 25 814 4570 991 19 0
CDI 0 12 1 95 4148 9506 2935 0
VCDI 0 17 2 35 355 5335 8331 651


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