Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-08-02

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-08-06

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 339 2637 20 26 0 0 0 0
OW 0 339 49 169 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 23 1032 365 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 111 3706 318 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 834 6933 870 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2112 12661 4309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 339 2302 21 61 8 0 0 0
OW 0 491 35 300 136 0 0 0
VODI 0 204 27 840 1741 50 0 0
ODI 0 22 9 137 2315 2308 406 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 709 4945 5532 1099
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2062 7593 3210

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 422 8 82 6 0 0 0
OW 0 31 8 74 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 69 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 0 13 347 3 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 0 249 516 93 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 201 244 620 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 417 8 89 24 0 0 0
OW 0 21 8 61 49 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 3 70 112 0 0 0
ODI 0 19 0 16 180 1 0 0
CDI 0 12 0 2 257 486 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 287 276 643 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2221 47 145 5 0 0 0
OW 0 861 35 312 15 0 0 0
VODI 0 230 45 698 181 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 1136 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 266 1923 146 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 826 762 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 2249 62 313 10 0 0 0
OW 0 841 30 370 126 0 0 0
VODI 0 218 29 350 490 16 0 0
ODI 0 4 6 171 506 104 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 471 1913 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 777 808 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2808 1421 12 79 8 0 0 0
OW 0 484 23 188 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 392 7 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 159 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2808 1471 11 165 18 0 0 0
OW 0 395 24 297 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 59 5 199 140 26 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 83 1315 12 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 434 42 172 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 176 40 1085 144 13 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 105 2303 159 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 86 1060 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 83 1415 30 189 1 0 0 0
OW 0 274 28 190 34 2 0 0
VODI 0 220 27 637 724 26 0 0
ODI 0 22 9 357 1707 679 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 67 525 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2278 2379 3 5 0 0 0 0
OW 0 166 33 49 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 3 274 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 62 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2277 2186 2 6 0 0 0 0
OW 1 225 11 29 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 134 26 264 97 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 39 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5023 1218 6 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 27 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 3 2 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5023 1127 6 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 64 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 60 3 1 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 1 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11331 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8614 2414 13 53 0 3 0 0
OW 0 81 15 108 25 2 0 0
VODI 0 10 1 132 55 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 152 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8614 2459 19 117 3 3 0 0
OW 0 35 9 132 52 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 1 44 92 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 84 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4025 1608 18 43 7 0 0 0
OW 0 0 1 14 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 21 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 30 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4025 1599 15 37 16 0 0 0
OW 0 9 4 18 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 26 4 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6472 1696 38 195 62 0 0 0
OW 0 1 1 30 51 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 30 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6472 1684 39 209 109 0 0 0
OW 0 13 0 17 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19760 417 0 19 13 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19760 408 0 19 13 0 0 0
OW 0 9 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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