Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92737 6974 48 193 7 2 0 0
OW 0 391 53 578 103 7 0 0
VODI 0 31 12 598 352 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 461 156 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 59 3010 1323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 562 1385 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93155 6747 54 222 11 4 0 0
OW 0 374 49 718 116 2 0 0
VODI 0 72 8 334 334 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 49 351 337 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 46 3171 1568 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 140 1058 165
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93707 6527 69 240 10 4 0 0
OW 0 130 36 568 77 1 0 0
VODI 0 11 1 399 329 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 539 82 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 85 1998 1252 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 65 2202 756
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93330 7269 66 185 7 2 0 0
OW 0 201 29 567 77 1 0 0
VODI 0 12 2 271 348 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 7 559 118 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 123 2677 1024 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 862 1317 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 93330 7285 66 344 7 1 0 0
OW 0 179 28 408 80 2 0 0
VODI 0 18 3 272 311 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 598 191 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 2470 997 44
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 997 1344 0

Date: 2018-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95366 5645 44 138 1 6 0 0
OW 0 201 39 483 69 1 0 0
VODI 0 17 5 280 328 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 613 214 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 387 2213 1241 293
VCDI 0 0 0 0 4 1014 415 58
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95366 5700 51 263 1 4 0 0
OW 0 146 34 357 66 3 0 0
VODI 0 17 3 286 340 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 602 288 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 356 2054 1190 287
VCDI 0 0 0 0 37 1098 466 64

Date: 2018-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95803 5489 43 108 0 3 0 0
OW 0 163 43 256 25 2 0 0
VODI 0 14 5 439 139 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 775 64 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 327 2394 88 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 548 1737 599
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95803 5491 49 203 3 3 0 0
OW 0 151 36 332 67 2 0 0
VODI 0 24 6 261 364 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 476 461 76 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 356 1751 1354 566
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 787 395 33

Date: 2018-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96501 4823 52 115 2 5 0 0
OW 0 154 24 299 53 2 0 0
VODI 0 45 10 272 307 3 0 0
ODI 0 3 2 52 547 229 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 397 1912 545 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 594 1606 541
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96501 4797 56 249 18 4 0 0
OW 0 148 20 267 150 3 0 0
VODI 0 65 10 158 387 49 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 69 364 806 110 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 387 1303 1805 505
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 580 236 36

Date: 2018-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96319 5091 41 90 2 4 0 0
OW 0 160 30 302 65 2 0 0
VODI 0 45 7 297 294 6 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 55 535 216 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 282 2603 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 799 1727 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 96319 5025 55 242 34 4 0 0
OW 0 173 15 265 167 2 0 0
VODI 0 77 6 176 312 47 0 0
ODI 0 33 4 70 399 977 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 266 2393 1502 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 207 328 0


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