Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-08-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8633 6683 131 921 313 36 0 0
OW 0 313 67 1896 359 81 0 0
VODI 0 240 45 2130 1417 125 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 481 2962 1010 0 0
CDI 0 14 3 18 1570 4760 989 0
VCDI 0 3 1 30 403 1523 6997 1704
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9598 6197 135 1141 240 38 0 0
OW 0 485 82 2378 467 58 0 0
VODI 0 200 33 1257 1907 78 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 281 2598 854 0 0
CDI 0 17 0 10 1153 4072 1934 0
VCDI 0 36 5 9 406 907 6657 2627
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10203 6271 127 968 189 29 0 0
OW 0 1522 124 975 165 34 0 0
VODI 0 307 45 2132 1093 14 0 0
ODI 0 10 0 133 3310 816 0 0
CDI 0 18 1 0 614 3965 767 0
VCDI 0 10 4 8 193 952 4217 6650
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11474 5670 100 753 200 11 0 0
OW 0 1831 107 1080 185 36 0 0
VODI 0 484 40 1429 1380 39 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 116 2499 1186 0 0
CDI 0 24 1 0 1190 3969 248 15
VCDI 0 8 0 5 96 3319 6625 1731
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11474 6039 119 964 226 23 0 0
OW 0 1281 81 895 135 28 0 0
VODI 0 668 47 1340 1525 36 0 0
ODI 0 13 3 179 2355 876 0 0
CDI 0 24 1 0 1214 4159 224 15
VCDI 0 4 0 5 95 3438 6649 1731

Date: 2018-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11641 6011 111 720 196 1 0 0
OW 0 1941 90 1082 248 13 0 0
VODI 0 364 58 1121 1776 9 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 99 2556 744 0 0
CDI 0 16 4 4 1431 3146 731 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 325 2045 7385 1974
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11641 6347 137 927 219 12 0 0
OW 0 1510 64 832 262 2 0 0
VODI 0 459 56 1130 1866 37 0 0
ODI 0 16 6 130 2254 447 0 0
CDI 0 12 3 7 1610 3320 609 0
VCDI 0 1 0 8 321 2140 7507 1974

Date: 2018-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11733 6796 113 531 101 0 0 0
OW 0 1626 81 685 130 0 0 0
VODI 0 274 62 1624 494 0 0 0
ODI 0 16 0 148 3672 193 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 0 934 4397 456 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 201 2303 7165 2116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11733 6833 134 886 198 0 0 0
OW 0 1513 74 840 337 0 0 0
VODI 0 341 42 1052 1904 65 0 0
ODI 0 23 6 190 1752 512 0 0
CDI 0 12 0 20 1054 4056 905 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 287 2260 6716 2116

Date: 2018-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12473 6734 94 514 147 0 0 0
OW 0 1476 71 778 122 0 0 0
VODI 0 196 53 1554 696 0 0 0
ODI 0 18 0 159 3170 259 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 2 1201 4191 444 0
VCDI 0 0 1 10 228 2197 7193 1881
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12473 6698 116 906 250 0 0 0
OW 0 1306 53 810 311 0 0 0
VODI 0 381 41 1060 1712 2 0 0
ODI 0 39 8 196 1523 598 9 0
CDI 0 4 0 35 1436 4088 1098 0
VCDI 0 0 1 10 332 1959 6530 1881

Date: 2018-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12271 7328 98 475 58 0 0 0
OW 0 1512 78 668 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 283 60 1503 820 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 200 2730 345 0 0
CDI 0 2 0 5 1330 4044 526 0
VCDI 0 1 2 16 236 4397 6409 341
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12271 7375 126 974 129 0 0 0
OW 0 1262 49 681 387 0 0 0
VODI 0 442 47 896 1562 5 0 0
ODI 0 47 9 219 1398 706 12 0
CDI 0 11 6 81 1507 4286 1070 0
VCDI 0 1 2 16 306 3789 5853 341


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