Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-08-02

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 107766 18691 225 1432 355 38 0 0
OW 55 1044 207 3351 588 91 0 0
VODI 0 297 73 3657 3827 159 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 554 6592 4814 0 0
CDI 0 14 3 19 1641 11345 5981 0
VCDI 0 3 1 30 403 2129 9597 2058
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 108926 18461 246 1869 274 42 0 0
OW 1 1174 202 4086 739 60 0 0
VODI 0 287 50 2331 4755 98 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 358 6420 4764 2 0
CDI 0 17 0 10 1216 10117 7303 81
VCDI 0 36 5 9 406 1050 8341 3306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110007 18599 251 1607 232 33 0 0
OW 1 2065 228 2074 282 35 0 0
VODI 0 351 63 3645 2131 15 0 0
ODI 0 14 0 219 8385 1886 0 0
CDI 0 18 1 0 1104 11455 3093 0
VCDI 0 10 4 8 193 1371 9869 7799
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-08-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110854 19238 214 1080 214 13 0 0
OW 1 2588 216 2027 272 37 0 0
VODI 0 663 84 3113 2498 41 0 0
ODI 0 29 7 580 6726 2764 107 0
CDI 0 24 1 0 2161 8808 4490 355
VCDI 0 8 0 5 96 4226 10767 2741
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110854 19751 253 1529 241 24 0 0
OW 1 1889 165 1714 230 30 0 0
VODI 0 855 95 2879 2782 37 0 0
ODI 0 27 8 678 6638 2391 162 0
CDI 0 24 1 0 1981 8909 4321 318
VCDI 0 4 0 5 95 4498 10881 2778

Date: 2018-08-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114361 16975 177 925 197 7 0 0
OW 5 2845 186 1871 331 14 0 0
VODI 0 795 134 2668 3029 21 0 0
ODI 0 43 16 459 6245 2989 349 0
CDI 0 17 4 4 1981 8187 4920 642
VCDI 0 1 0 8 329 3135 10162 3016
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 114365 17509 218 1322 225 16 0 0
OW 1 2251 155 1506 361 5 0 0
VODI 0 863 122 2558 3204 76 0 0
ODI 0 39 19 534 5869 2742 283 0
CDI 0 13 3 7 2095 8176 4646 607
VCDI 0 1 0 8 358 3338 10502 3051

Date: 2018-08-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115581 17748 177 697 101 3 0 0
OW 0 2424 207 1116 159 2 0 0
VODI 0 498 123 3686 956 15 0 0
ODI 0 23 0 298 7905 577 0 0
CDI 0 10 0 0 1446 10447 1109 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 201 3182 14043 4309
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 115580 17317 213 1244 202 3 0 0
OW 1 2377 149 1414 447 4 0 0
VODI 0 923 121 2408 3440 119 0 0
ODI 0 73 24 711 4883 3116 406 0
CDI 0 13 0 20 1509 7869 5702 1099
VCDI 0 0 0 5 287 3115 9044 3210

Date: 2018-08-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117724 16789 165 674 149 5 0 0
OW 0 2236 153 1402 182 3 0 0
VODI 0 522 127 3236 1662 21 0 0
ODI 0 24 3 352 6665 1219 0 0
CDI 0 4 0 7 1800 9724 1456 0
VCDI 0 0 1 10 228 3361 13587 3557
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117723 16157 200 1329 276 4 0 0
OW 1 2116 107 1384 518 9 0 0
VODI 0 1161 110 2185 3624 164 0 0
ODI 0 136 31 730 3960 3861 406 0
CDI 0 5 0 43 1976 7693 6428 823
VCDI 0 0 1 10 332 2602 8209 2734

Date: 2018-08-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117588 17740 166 611 60 4 0 0
OW 1 2424 165 1354 188 2 0 0
VODI 0 684 119 3032 1981 27 0 0
ODI 0 30 7 408 5640 1614 19 0
CDI 0 2 0 18 1802 10236 1498 0
VCDI 0 1 2 16 236 6404 12132 837
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 117587 17230 217 1399 164 4 0 0
OW 1 2101 97 1311 614 6 0 0
VODI 1 1296 103 1958 3674 342 4 0
ODI 0 241 34 640 3206 4471 326 0
CDI 0 12 6 115 1943 9415 6069 264
VCDI 0 1 2 16 306 4049 7250 573


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