Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-07-26

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-30

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124 2083 32 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 114 34 224 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 21 11 781 303 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 33 4522 347 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 598 10236 1371 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 825 10731 4450
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 124 2094 35 89 12 0 0 0
OW 0 99 33 355 75 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 9 610 1635 90 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 3176 3103 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 532 7973 8559 605
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 242 3543 3845

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 374 17 29 6 0 0 0
OW 0 12 8 49 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 9 0 66 105 0 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 6 258 27 0 0
CDI 0 19 0 3 119 421 142 0
VCDI 0 14 2 13 314 329 591 159
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 360 25 60 51 0 0 0
OW 0 5 0 54 50 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 0 31 107 49 0 0
ODI 0 15 0 3 136 78 1 0
CDI 0 26 0 0 116 289 152 0
VCDI 0 24 2 18 371 360 580 159

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 732 32 276 3 0 0 0
OW 0 717 77 608 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 200 37 1618 266 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 86 1483 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 126 1169 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 811 1401 20
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 894 55 741 41 0 0 0
OW 0 540 55 874 131 0 0 0
VODI 0 212 32 678 713 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 4 283 637 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 383 1122 230 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 883 1438 20

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2048 1946 17 85 6 0 0 0
OW 0 186 24 132 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 82 19 664 104 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 299 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 2048 2065 34 266 55 0 0 0
OW 0 98 18 442 54 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 8 173 215 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 115 12 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 818 26 377 4 0 0 0
OW 0 122 29 342 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 17 8 732 270 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 41 2660 192 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 74 1513 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 864 35 813 112 0 0 0
OW 0 83 22 344 328 1 0 0
VODI 0 10 6 287 1608 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 979 1623 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1321 2478 15 53 3 0 0 0
OW 1 174 29 130 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 6 326 88 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 671 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1321 2436 23 86 6 0 0 0
OW 1 204 21 228 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 14 6 205 522 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 228 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4276 1780 12 128 6 0 0 0
OW 0 13 2 21 14 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 0 35 15 0 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 7 17 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 4256 1783 11 132 9 0 0 0
OW 20 11 3 27 16 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 0 27 19 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 5 8 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11330 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11330 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8080 2537 18 80 2 6 0 0
OW 0 134 16 183 31 7 0 0
VODI 0 16 2 220 119 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 185 19 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 22 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 8080 2497 19 153 21 10 0 0
OW 0 148 12 200 65 3 0 0
VODI 0 42 5 125 133 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 105 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 26 19 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12987 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3001 2243 17 67 4 0 0 0
OW 0 21 11 176 16 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 107 70 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 4 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 16 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3001 2251 26 211 10 7 0 0
OW 0 13 2 127 76 11 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 10 4 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 4 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5564 2273 39 344 122 25 0 0
OW 0 8 3 60 36 19 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 42 20 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 5 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5564 2278 40 367 180 61 0 0
OW 0 3 2 49 22 12 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19072 1014 19 73 0 0 0 0
OW 0 3 2 26 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 19072 1015 21 75 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 0 24 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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