Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-07-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3285 9649 228 1763 179 32 0 0
OW 0 105 28 1060 456 34 0 0
VODI 0 104 13 563 2169 137 0 0
ODI 0 3 6 677 2574 846 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 3416 5215 57 0
VCDI 0 2 1 47 412 6774 5878 98
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 4477 9369 221 1274 308 35 0 0
OW 0 184 48 1219 638 72 0 0
VODI 0 127 14 961 2037 136 0 0
ODI 0 35 6 1032 2086 280 0 0
CDI 0 0 1 145 2784 5364 297 4
VCDI 0 0 0 47 462 4123 5992 2088
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 7856 7019 136 682 251 25 0 0
OW 3 315 50 950 219 45 0 0
VODI 0 110 22 2583 1574 70 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 162 3945 726 0 0
CDI 0 8 4 9 1553 6109 574 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 397 1908 8059 435
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8538 6702 120 819 279 36 0 0
OW 2 350 70 1397 317 50 0 0
VODI 0 140 31 2781 1276 59 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 380 3899 457 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 14 1874 4687 797 0
VCDI 0 1 0 25 173 1929 6392 2258
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8540 6840 145 1159 386 55 0 0
OW 0 215 50 1311 276 36 0 0
VODI 0 137 26 2522 1305 57 0 0
ODI 0 7 1 385 3739 466 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 26 1936 4645 812 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 176 1959 6377 2258

Date: 2018-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9669 5862 109 876 379 43 0 0
OW 0 332 70 2157 583 56 0 0
VODI 0 190 33 1463 1826 124 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 314 2584 1237 0 0
CDI 0 22 0 7 1363 4813 1065 0
VCDI 0 26 5 16 446 2097 7445 646
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9669 6017 142 1555 572 72 0 0
OW 0 139 34 1024 467 33 0 0
VODI 0 227 36 1906 1874 182 0 0
ODI 0 13 0 321 2452 1153 0 0
CDI 0 26 3 12 1365 4895 1096 0
VCDI 0 18 2 15 451 2035 7414 646

Date: 2018-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9777 6316 133 944 145 25 0 0
OW 0 937 116 916 155 28 0 0
VODI 0 307 63 2852 725 34 0 0
ODI 0 12 0 108 4325 257 0 0
CDI 0 19 0 3 593 4505 520 0
VCDI 0 14 2 13 314 1259 5995 4454
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 9777 6591 181 1812 409 68 0 0
OW 0 651 80 1579 290 24 0 0
VODI 0 295 47 1123 2071 77 0 0
ODI 0 18 4 292 2146 718 1 0
CDI 0 26 0 12 969 3963 1945 436
VCDI 0 24 2 18 372 1258 4569 4018

Date: 2018-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10900 5982 109 802 196 26 0 0
OW 0 1636 105 1123 181 33 0 0
VODI 0 361 47 1668 1380 13 0 0
ODI 0 11 1 122 2994 873 0 0
CDI 0 12 2 0 963 3929 487 2
VCDI 0 15 3 6 257 1040 6325 4262
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10900 6682 171 1751 384 64 0 0
OW 0 863 51 1093 442 9 0 0
VODI 0 370 34 619 2213 197 0 0
ODI 0 59 6 236 1491 894 0 0
CDI 0 32 2 16 1062 3778 2501 1587
VCDI 0 11 3 6 379 972 4311 2677

Date: 2018-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11516 5827 101 789 164 0 0 0
OW 0 1890 104 1104 210 13 0 0
VODI 0 475 46 1173 1636 4 0 0
ODI 0 12 5 132 2646 852 0 0
CDI 0 19 4 4 1624 3322 472 0
VCDI 0 1 0 4 106 2623 7856 1132
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 11516 6793 183 1818 400 13 0 0
OW 0 908 43 733 690 3 0 0
VODI 0 422 15 438 2019 326 0 0
ODI 0 65 12 194 1356 762 3 0
CDI 0 29 4 15 1766 3766 3079 730
VCDI 0 7 3 8 155 1944 5246 402


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