Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-07-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 95872 25258 450 2852 375 41 0 0
OW 5 794 121 2605 1035 58 0 0
VODI 0 191 41 1920 4511 196 0 0
ODI 0 5 7 861 7414 3704 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 56 3999 14661 2761 0
VCDI 0 2 1 47 412 8402 8292 98
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 99243 23941 399 2059 448 43 0 0
OW 113 798 156 3008 1054 102 0 0
VODI 6 211 32 2274 4621 196 0 0
ODI 0 40 8 1299 7198 2990 42 0
CDI 0 0 1 145 3172 12958 4645 13
VCDI 0 0 0 47 462 4713 8366 2245
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 104204 20987 275 1240 291 27 0 0
OW 26 824 177 2373 345 54 0 0
VODI 0 154 41 4852 2790 89 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 244 10096 1752 0 0
CDI 0 8 4 9 1783 14039 4846 0
VCDI 0 0 0 61 397 2075 11458 1519
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105526 20494 242 1328 344 41 0 0
OW 3 1031 206 2950 505 55 0 0
VODI 0 178 48 4515 3417 87 0 0
ODI 0 6 0 452 8313 3287 0 0
CDI 0 4 3 15 1975 11196 5530 495
VCDI 0 1 0 25 173 2122 8864 3617
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105528 20611 291 2027 471 58 0 0
OW 1 881 152 2597 544 42 0 0
VODI 0 208 53 4099 3223 86 0 0
ODI 0 10 1 523 8266 3148 14 0
CDI 0 4 2 26 2047 11274 5371 506
VCDI 0 0 0 13 176 2180 9009 3606

Date: 2018-07-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109217 17703 209 1519 411 48 0 0
OW 21 1027 209 3630 962 62 0 0
VODI 0 279 56 2711 4497 151 0 0
ODI 0 8 0 404 5604 5834 9 0
CDI 0 22 0 7 1423 10949 6193 64
VCDI 0 26 5 16 446 2767 9341 1218
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109155 17917 266 2525 661 78 0 0
OW 83 752 143 2191 917 39 0 0
VODI 0 339 64 3078 4338 220 0 0
ODI 0 13 1 466 5525 5538 1 0
CDI 0 26 3 12 1451 11369 6226 65
VCDI 0 18 2 15 451 2567 9316 1217

Date: 2018-07-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109663 18280 244 1566 156 31 0 0
OW 1 1504 235 1951 223 35 0 0
VODI 0 348 83 4561 1382 36 0 0
ODI 0 14 2 196 10104 663 1 0
CDI 0 19 0 3 930 13377 1780 0
VCDI 0 14 2 13 314 1965 12723 4629
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109643 18539 324 2993 497 78 0 0
OW 21 1206 168 2724 836 28 0 0
VODI 0 366 66 2146 4959 233 0 0
ODI 0 18 6 397 5388 4864 2 0
CDI 0 26 0 12 1057 9419 8941 605
VCDI 0 24 2 18 372 1485 5561 4024

Date: 2018-08-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110290 19217 247 1211 208 31 0 0
OW 1 2175 198 2276 263 40 0 0
VODI 0 428 76 3446 2348 14 0 0
ODI 0 14 1 485 7753 1983 0 0
CDI 0 12 2 0 1871 10172 3361 309
VCDI 0 15 3 6 257 1447 10230 6658
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110290 19823 333 2722 461 72 0 0
OW 1 1482 124 2369 918 15 0 0
VODI 0 451 59 1945 5096 455 0 0
ODI 0 62 6 365 4706 4415 262 0
CDI 0 32 2 17 1140 7758 9016 3682
VCDI 0 11 3 6 379 972 4313 3285

Date: 2018-08-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112370 18306 187 1048 166 6 0 0
OW 1 2697 216 1987 289 17 0 0
VODI 0 809 107 2669 2923 16 0 0
ODI 0 40 13 497 6054 3304 322 0
CDI 0 19 4 4 2126 7809 5136 705
VCDI 0 1 0 4 106 3536 10756 2798
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 112370 19154 302 2579 484 20 0 0
OW 1 1801 126 1684 1178 18 0 0
VODI 0 781 77 1676 4602 1274 72 0
ODI 0 100 15 247 3130 4107 1765 17
CDI 0 29 4 15 2096 6950 9131 3037
VCDI 0 7 3 8 174 2319 5246 449


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