Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-07-19

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-23

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 140 1878 36 104 1 0 0 0
OW 0 37 13 218 17 0 0 0
VODI 0 7 1 420 311 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 3992 446 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 825 12675 2969 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2135 9132 1490
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 140 1859 32 150 22 0 0 0
OW 0 63 18 241 153 2 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 280 715 37 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 119 3185 2155 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1071 10312 5107 122
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 2754 6982 1371

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 307 14 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 12 2 38 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 1 27 81 1 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 5 275 32 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 11 275 613 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 60 370 642 316 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 305 12 40 11 0 0 0
OW 0 8 3 22 62 2 0 0
VODI 0 16 2 23 161 27 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 1 100 60 0 0
CDI 0 4 2 7 220 398 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 66 460 801 316 0

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 484 18 139 12 0 0 0
OW 0 64 8 238 30 0 0 0
VODI 0 129 22 1627 367 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 0 292 2264 5 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 629 1496 32 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1106 1015 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 478 15 179 32 0 0 0
OW 0 51 13 329 189 0 0 0
VODI 0 122 11 470 638 7 0 0
ODI 0 31 9 860 530 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 458 1905 1137 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 8 1463 1047 0

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1644 1762 30 106 12 0 0 0
OW 0 121 22 132 36 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 768 360 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 494 23 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 128 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1644 1791 37 282 92 0 0 0
OW 0 95 17 338 267 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 397 522 141 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 10 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 602 14 92 2 0 0 0
OW 0 100 33 502 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 1334 249 0 0 0
ODI 0 3 0 46 2902 86 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 1213 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 590 27 358 12 0 0 0
OW 0 73 19 763 261 0 0 0
VODI 0 51 5 589 946 174 0 0
ODI 0 4 0 261 1836 1116 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 149 9 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 920 2460 17 37 3 0 0 0
OW 1 189 29 148 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 4 396 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 13 1003 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 920 2322 21 81 8 0 0 0
OW 1 284 26 223 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 58 3 277 424 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 2 13 629 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1712 3986 31 92 41 2 0 0
OW 72 67 17 107 18 7 0 0
VODI 0 4 0 61 41 14 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 17 15 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 22 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 1708 3926 32 113 52 10 0 0
OW 75 123 16 105 35 17 0 0
VODI 1 8 0 43 11 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 21 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11239 92 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 11239 92 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7735 2547 24 136 4 0 0 0
OW 0 37 13 174 31 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 3 360 199 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 18 268 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 108 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 7735 2546 33 251 18 0 0 0
OW 0 38 5 280 90 1 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 157 317 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 87 68 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 65 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12988 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 294 4256 45 188 16 6 0 0
OW 0 75 30 191 14 15 0 0
VODI 0 9 2 273 242 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 90 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 2 22 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 294 4283 64 288 53 16 0 0
OW 0 43 11 260 158 19 0 0
VODI 0 14 2 104 135 21 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 18 20 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3794 3649 48 354 160 9 0 0
OW 0 21 4 101 141 3 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 44 134 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 69 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 3794 3543 46 418 322 13 0 0
OW 0 127 6 77 123 22 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 12 57 17 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 7 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18428 1587 16 76 0 0 0 0
OW 0 1 4 37 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 8 28 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 18428 1588 20 102 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 19 25 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 24 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0


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