Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-07-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89333 8147 126 999 110 0 0 0
OW 0 114 21 633 397 5 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 377 1197 28 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 70 889 264 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 118 1942 234 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1715 2337 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 89509 8208 114 1057 110 0 0 0
OW 0 93 16 700 560 6 0 0
VODI 0 10 2 252 1213 122 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 47 402 410 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 55 2073 534 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 975 2581 4
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90017 8257 111 718 32 0 0 0
OW 1 86 28 657 84 2 0 0
VODI 0 11 4 601 520 17 0 0
ODI 0 5 1 101 1051 89 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 96 1734 1645 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 377 2771 84
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90505 7940 106 641 152 0 0 0
OW 1 73 22 546 321 2 0 0
VODI 0 13 6 343 942 12 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 30 738 167 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 92 2462 1334 47
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 471 1816 313
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 90503 7928 98 664 202 0 0 0
OW 3 91 33 519 309 2 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 348 919 20 0 0
ODI 0 4 1 29 705 163 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 110 2430 1325 33
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 499 1825 327

Date: 2018-07-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91541 7302 98 554 31 0 0 0
OW 0 68 26 713 226 12 0 0
VODI 0 14 6 458 874 19 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 8 488 370 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 1908 1911 236
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1077 1112 2
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91536 7291 101 703 55 0 0 0
OW 5 84 21 572 263 8 0 0
VODI 0 9 8 449 815 27 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 479 339 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 52 1927 1850 225
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1085 1174 13

Date: 2018-07-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91582 7523 83 346 5 0 0 0
OW 0 117 45 498 59 1 0 0
VODI 0 18 6 721 571 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 35 835 60 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 77 3149 588 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 136 2531 113
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 91582 7540 105 614 70 0 0 0
OW 0 102 25 639 311 1 0 0
VODI 0 16 4 347 776 35 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 368 515 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 2706 1698 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 90 1409 113

Date: 2018-07-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92101 7351 65 247 5 0 0 0
OW 0 270 57 564 76 2 0 0
VODI 0 20 8 708 468 9 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 58 516 61 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 102 2903 1038 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 2 61 1954 454
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92101 7441 98 683 70 0 0 0
OW 0 196 26 591 314 4 0 0
VODI 0 4 6 302 508 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 274 668 58 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 2291 2386 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 11 548 444

Date: 2018-07-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92737 6974 48 193 7 2 0 0
OW 0 391 53 578 103 7 0 0
VODI 0 31 12 598 352 11 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 461 156 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 59 3010 1323 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 562 1385 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 92737 7234 88 732 129 2 0 0
OW 0 160 24 492 247 10 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 190 479 133 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 127 866 147 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2683 2476 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 81 0


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