Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-07-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1564 6720 204 1520 486 47 5 0
OW 1 239 45 857 769 35 6 0
VODI 0 68 19 591 2733 204 15 0
ODI 0 21 6 94 1120 421 14 0
CDI 0 31 5 147 4304 1979 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2270 10144 8072 1081
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1846 6915 201 1561 562 56 0 0
OW 1 133 47 1029 850 70 0 0
VODI 0 27 3 412 2446 195 2 0
ODI 0 13 2 58 959 531 12 0
CDI 0 0 2 182 2855 4275 19 0
VCDI 0 2 0 4 3189 13597 3810 0
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1812 7305 196 1767 282 24 0 0
OW 1 190 49 819 391 36 0 0
VODI 0 12 5 618 2275 87 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 143 1898 529 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 4847 5720 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 626 12572 3518 47
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-07-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2165 7894 217 1417 250 27 0 0
OW 0 213 24 972 527 47 0 0
VODI 0 11 6 1058 1755 107 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 149 1499 747 0 0
CDI 0 7 0 25 3881 6196 95 0
VCDI 0 9 0 6 768 11598 4194 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2165 7962 217 1691 479 32 0 0
OW 0 140 24 823 559 49 0 0
VODI 0 16 6 930 1531 107 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 152 1454 796 0 0
CDI 0 4 1 24 3736 5877 117 0
VCDI 0 12 0 7 921 11861 4172 0

Date: 2018-07-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2365 8534 180 1522 253 51 0 0
OW 0 154 40 1305 845 50 4 0
VODI 0 9 5 689 1469 170 0 0
ODI 0 6 2 205 1870 375 0 0
CDI 0 3 0 259 5227 3916 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 751 12012 3523 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2365 8536 187 1969 458 58 2 0
OW 0 148 35 925 600 52 2 0
VODI 0 15 3 629 1602 167 0 0
ODI 0 2 2 191 1748 336 0 0
CDI 0 5 0 266 4991 3690 78 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 1016 12271 3514 0

Date: 2018-07-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2755 9001 195 1338 89 14 0 0
OW 0 100 32 1437 130 34 0 0
VODI 0 20 5 1399 813 54 0 0
ODI 0 9 3 281 4166 331 0 0
CDI 0 12 0 40 3736 5476 18 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 248 7631 6455 41
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2755 8970 199 2190 251 50 0 0
OW 0 113 29 1187 450 51 0 0
VODI 0 30 3 669 1320 146 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 209 1565 421 0 0
CDI 0 12 0 232 5011 3550 105 0
VCDI 0 3 0 11 585 9322 6368 41

Date: 2018-07-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2916 9303 210 1503 418 49 0 0
OW 0 84 32 989 494 48 0 0
VODI 0 15 3 948 1370 107 0 0
ODI 0 8 6 189 3793 502 0 0
CDI 0 6 0 13 3572 5417 106 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 577 9573 3611 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2916 9255 217 1995 780 99 0 0
OW 0 113 25 770 664 68 0 0
VODI 0 26 2 522 1350 162 0 0
ODI 0 16 7 216 1562 688 0 0
CDI 0 6 0 139 4996 3652 217 0
VCDI 0 1 0 3 872 11027 3500 0

Date: 2018-07-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3285 9649 228 1763 179 32 0 0
OW 0 105 28 1060 456 34 0 0
VODI 0 104 13 563 2169 137 0 0
ODI 0 3 6 677 2574 846 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 55 3416 5215 57 0
VCDI 0 2 1 47 412 6774 5878 98
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 3285 9646 238 2255 628 90 0 0
OW 0 94 16 627 608 67 0 0
VODI 0 25 4 371 1360 201 0 0
ODI 0 94 14 181 1676 900 0 0
CDI 0 2 3 685 4233 3759 144 0
VCDI 0 2 1 46 701 8021 5791 98


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