Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-06-28

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 240 4140 149 1367 714 1 6 0
OW 9 114 43 503 669 32 2 0
VODI 0 45 10 242 1401 771 10 0
ODI 0 23 7 94 1000 1978 56 0
CDI 0 20 4 175 647 1994 417 0
VCDI 0 0 0 20 1462 5558 9345 12598
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 304 4446 142 1428 887 9 0 0
OW 7 149 37 411 1011 304 0 0
VODI 0 79 15 245 948 2076 24 0
ODI 0 42 15 119 479 798 106 0
CDI 0 32 6 187 720 1802 272 0
VCDI 0 2 1 30 1379 4108 11733 11513
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 525 5121 151 1492 544 7 0 0
OW 8 116 49 596 761 16 0 0
VODI 0 39 13 374 1357 68 3 0
ODI 0 21 6 75 1797 831 8 0
CDI 0 18 5 127 1559 2430 56 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1105 9563 6245 10780
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 653 5452 199 1480 684 10 0 0
OW 5 112 42 502 944 80 0 0
VODI 0 40 12 296 1177 861 7 0
ODI 0 33 4 85 987 1227 13 0
CDI 0 48 8 122 1746 2150 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 9 1491 9560 6313 9477
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 654 5178 198 1718 1861 898 0 0
OW 4 272 26 245 677 747 7 0
VODI 0 99 19 239 558 401 16 0
ODI 0 46 9 101 533 416 25 0
CDI 0 77 8 155 1535 1612 55 0
VCDI 0 13 5 36 1865 9814 6267 9477

Date: 2018-06-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 769 5855 181 1559 684 22 0 0
OW 4 152 34 481 963 131 3 0
VODI 0 74 8 366 1093 1234 11 0
ODI 0 51 7 129 928 796 10 0
CDI 0 75 6 152 2125 1961 55 0
VCDI 0 23 1 23 1686 9982 6584 7648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 770 5611 178 1793 2043 1271 4 0
OW 3 266 27 247 361 449 12 0
VODI 0 134 13 279 493 327 12 0
ODI 0 60 7 174 689 357 27 0
CDI 0 95 10 170 1934 1603 71 0
VCDI 0 64 2 47 1959 10119 6537 7648

Date: 2018-07-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 922 6476 217 1394 521 40 0 0
OW 4 151 45 433 403 39 1 0
VODI 0 46 9 637 1104 70 2 0
ODI 0 41 4 80 3370 529 4 0
CDI 0 50 7 131 2116 3623 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 803 9294 8252 4973
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 924 6128 219 1633 3175 278 11 0
OW 2 220 23 255 402 267 4 0
VODI 0 145 15 367 545 235 12 0
ODI 0 70 8 194 702 321 11 0
CDI 0 134 12 178 2086 1752 28 0
VCDI 0 67 5 56 1407 10742 8260 4973

Date: 2018-07-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1313 6582 213 1485 509 47 1 0
OW 3 157 32 604 674 33 3 0
VODI 0 48 12 538 1690 749 9 0
ODI 0 30 4 120 1489 990 6 0
CDI 0 49 5 169 2837 2991 73 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 2193 9179 9380 1639
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1315 6223 221 1930 2145 950 21 0
OW 1 212 11 339 333 242 12 0
VODI 0 156 14 283 638 225 24 0
ODI 0 87 4 98 715 420 14 0
CDI 0 186 16 237 2180 2221 7 0
VCDI 0 2 0 39 3381 9931 9394 1639

Date: 2018-07-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1564 6720 204 1520 486 47 5 0
OW 1 239 45 857 769 35 6 0
VODI 0 68 19 591 2733 204 15 0
ODI 0 21 6 94 1120 421 14 0
CDI 0 31 5 147 4304 1979 25 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 2270 10144 8072 1081
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1564 6510 215 2141 2738 101 37 0
OW 1 246 18 343 366 112 11 0
VODI 0 137 19 367 593 181 16 0
ODI 0 71 12 104 859 403 1 0
CDI 0 115 15 239 4094 1530 68 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 3032 10503 8004 1081


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