Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-06-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81773 12570 120 645 258 2 0 0
OW 25 194 44 470 165 7 2 0
VODI 1 59 18 281 685 91 10 0
ODI 0 14 3 80 773 533 48 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 540 1511 1205 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 127 2466 4360
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 83434 11277 107 642 177 0 0 0
OW 61 187 47 436 240 12 4 0
VODI 14 52 16 281 753 117 31 0
ODI 0 13 2 86 722 605 120 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 594 1546 864 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 845 2603 3188
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84520 10413 121 803 116 0 0 0
OW 43 85 41 536 162 0 1 0
VODI 13 1 2 244 799 31 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 1013 372 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 371 1892 693 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 205 2051 4527
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84166 11143 129 788 82 0 0 0
OW 35 73 40 540 210 3 1 0
VODI 9 0 1 207 1064 74 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 766 519 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 352 1483 1175 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 60 1663 4435
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 84171 11154 132 944 112 0 0 0
OW 29 59 34 388 260 8 0 0
VODI 10 3 4 201 1011 130 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 700 368 73 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 391 1572 1103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 61 1718 4435

Date: 2018-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85027 10467 113 880 115 0 0 0
OW 34 66 34 489 464 7 1 0
VODI 4 0 5 193 1038 166 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 664 617 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 479 1445 966 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 140 1962 3639
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85030 10483 120 1089 165 0 0 0
OW 27 49 27 299 577 17 1 0
VODI 8 1 5 165 876 171 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 46 596 477 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 543 1503 890 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 207 2032 3639

Date: 2018-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85088 10623 107 727 68 0 0 0
OW 26 104 37 499 115 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 5 425 704 12 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 1432 177 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 301 2017 253 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 210 3394 2744
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 85089 10655 120 1127 296 0 0 0
OW 23 65 19 309 679 33 2 0
VODI 2 11 10 177 704 210 7 0
ODI 0 0 0 54 523 617 75 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 415 1330 1216 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 226 2359 2744

Date: 2018-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86595 9399 113 749 67 0 0 0
OW 20 82 38 662 199 2 1 0
VODI 0 8 5 377 921 27 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 28 1195 319 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 441 1386 192 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1392 4521 339
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86598 9399 126 1219 480 1 0 0
OW 16 68 21 340 533 36 3 0
VODI 1 22 9 202 603 278 18 0
ODI 0 0 0 55 674 707 17 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 533 1172 1156 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 932 3541 337

Date: 2018-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86023 9935 134 862 132 0 0 0
OW 14 70 26 732 370 3 1 0
VODI 0 14 5 261 1039 26 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 26 1078 523 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 177 1031 274 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1169 2401 2730
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 86022 9933 144 1406 725 12 0 0
OW 15 65 14 266 486 51 3 0
VODI 0 21 7 161 619 376 47 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 720 626 100 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 246 1496 1123 21
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 191 1445 2711


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