Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-06-21

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110 3115 143 1075 591 35 0 0
OW 11 178 36 394 599 111 8 0
VODI 0 54 15 253 674 455 13 0
ODI 0 39 4 199 576 968 148 0
CDI 0 37 8 203 657 3946 751 4
VCDI 0 22 5 88 861 4863 13853 10764
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 160 3194 153 1187 755 52 5 0
OW 17 159 39 308 757 93 2 0
VODI 0 56 13 329 911 442 19 0
ODI 0 40 5 162 973 1082 108 0
CDI 0 38 10 245 1122 3370 758 0
VCDI 0 0 0 179 1389 4933 10893 11908
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 208 3591 125 1181 680 8 7 0
OW 19 143 57 523 452 16 2 0
VODI 0 30 11 367 995 36 7 0
ODI 0 23 4 109 1978 1497 21 0
CDI 0 10 1 171 1080 3110 390 0
VCDI 0 5 1 11 1162 3854 11024 12957
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 236 3967 139 1389 581 19 4 0
OW 12 103 45 505 601 18 4 0
VODI 0 40 11 273 1673 98 7 0
ODI 0 19 7 98 1604 1805 24 0
CDI 0 18 3 193 819 2037 506 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1299 6094 9687 11928
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 235 3983 150 1451 572 24 6 0
OW 13 78 31 463 577 15 2 0
VODI 0 37 11 248 1664 84 7 0
ODI 0 29 10 97 1544 1578 21 0
CDI 0 20 3 199 892 2191 497 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1328 6179 9699 11928

Date: 2018-06-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 265 4323 141 1372 810 8 0 0
OW 8 128 40 458 815 140 2 0
VODI 0 62 11 249 1006 1643 6 0
ODI 0 26 9 129 763 1386 55 0
CDI 0 21 6 170 677 1878 335 0
VCDI 0 0 0 26 1414 4139 9457 13888
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 265 4321 147 1494 812 10 0 0
OW 8 114 31 370 770 195 2 0
VODI 0 62 12 230 965 1529 6 0
ODI 0 36 9 104 811 1278 27 0
CDI 0 27 8 179 703 1889 334 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 1424 4293 9486 13888

Date: 2018-06-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 437 4886 143 1268 602 9 0 0
OW 11 432 38 553 302 27 0 0
VODI 0 111 6 410 1051 45 3 0
ODI 0 20 5 89 2280 377 11 0
CDI 0 20 5 127 1050 3579 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1133 6666 7678 12443
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 442 4777 139 1528 940 25 0 0
OW 6 396 20 354 911 102 1 0
VODI 0 158 13 249 1761 957 16 0
ODI 0 68 7 67 564 494 33 0
CDI 0 67 17 219 795 2079 62 0
VCDI 0 3 1 30 1447 7046 7629 12443

Date: 2018-06-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 604 5260 181 1309 790 5 0 0
OW 7 103 38 525 967 47 0 0
VODI 0 33 6 256 1112 701 0 0
ODI 0 21 4 78 970 1530 5 0
CDI 0 21 5 116 1247 2654 26 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 1515 9523 6787 9409
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 607 4953 181 1494 1709 328 0 0
OW 4 191 19 321 810 1057 0 0
VODI 0 127 9 155 691 786 6 0
ODI 0 84 10 67 446 372 8 0
CDI 0 83 15 231 1171 2025 21 0
VCDI 0 0 0 27 1774 9892 6783 9409

Date: 2018-06-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 754 5721 170 1468 639 8 0 0
OW 5 125 42 562 904 85 0 0
VODI 0 63 8 359 1082 1092 10 0
ODI 0 41 6 104 1037 932 14 0
CDI 0 69 3 153 2092 1894 54 0
VCDI 0 2 2 17 1879 9819 6105 8546
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 756 5344 168 1768 1766 890 0 0
OW 3 254 21 256 681 709 0 0
VODI 0 153 13 205 488 363 12 0
ODI 0 127 17 117 428 362 29 0
CDI 0 128 9 273 1812 1582 114 0
VCDI 0 15 3 44 2458 9924 6028 8546


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