Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-06-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 2173 46 225 84 5 0 0
OW 7 289 19 265 240 55 0 0
VODI 0 148 21 256 346 166 23 0
ODI 0 85 15 252 396 191 102 0
CDI 0 47 24 464 785 655 607 27
VCDI 0 30 8 212 735 2234 13671 20910
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74 2316 44 346 151 14 0 0
OW 8 285 31 223 287 79 8 0
VODI 0 176 29 237 349 190 53 0
ODI 0 108 21 265 397 214 167 0
CDI 0 74 21 409 629 885 756 0
VCDI 0 61 10 235 696 2270 13951 19797
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 128 2624 49 422 155 9 0 0
OW 11 201 48 361 211 23 0 0
VODI 0 195 20 367 466 67 4 0
ODI 0 107 19 229 613 255 38 0
CDI 0 84 19 174 590 1196 478 3
VCDI 0 76 11 124 448 2171 14426 19444
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 141 2711 67 493 215 15 0 0
OW 11 276 42 340 268 39 0 0
VODI 0 147 25 345 582 104 20 0
ODI 0 109 10 154 478 340 65 0
CDI 0 86 21 182 582 1294 742 13
VCDI 0 92 10 126 422 1797 11660 21842
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 141 2694 64 458 205 17 0 0
OW 11 253 45 341 244 26 2 0
VODI 0 181 25 396 606 126 24 0
ODI 0 94 12 133 479 328 98 0
CDI 0 99 19 180 573 1223 657 12
VCDI 0 100 10 132 440 1869 11706 21843

Date: 2018-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140 2795 91 569 340 39 0 0
OW 11 240 37 285 428 52 5 0
VODI 0 135 23 328 580 207 47 0
ODI 0 70 12 121 384 358 124 0
CDI 0 69 12 183 522 1299 895 1
VCDI 0 90 12 171 378 2661 19452 12700
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 140 2818 95 546 328 37 1 0
OW 11 187 33 329 383 42 11 0
VODI 0 151 22 309 639 233 74 0
ODI 0 67 11 116 371 341 125 0
CDI 0 76 14 172 522 1167 725 1
VCDI 0 100 12 185 389 2796 19587 12700

Date: 2018-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105 2785 104 603 276 38 0 0
OW 10 210 43 415 214 59 0 0
VODI 0 146 21 447 580 62 4 0
ODI 0 168 5 124 931 242 35 0
CDI 0 223 10 191 1029 2562 647 1
VCDI 0 118 5 88 268 3763 14174 15160
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 105 2754 105 678 366 84 2 0
OW 10 158 28 400 380 87 11 0
VODI 0 130 18 262 621 189 78 0
ODI 0 184 13 112 469 232 153 0
CDI 0 286 8 181 747 1614 866 6
VCDI 0 138 16 235 715 4520 13750 15155

Date: 2018-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119 2771 102 846 417 26 0 0
OW 12 150 34 531 458 70 1 0
VODI 0 67 12 230 697 310 6 0
ODI 0 25 2 151 621 680 84 0
CDI 0 24 9 193 704 3972 1031 32
VCDI 0 38 5 95 551 3419 12565 14806
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 119 2587 94 765 548 95 7 0
OW 12 116 15 400 399 141 32 0
VODI 0 117 21 282 560 232 54 0
ODI 0 89 12 109 542 665 78 19
CDI 0 74 6 318 748 3358 1867 167
VCDI 0 92 16 172 651 3986 11649 14652

Date: 2018-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 110 3115 143 1075 591 35 0 0
OW 11 178 36 394 599 111 8 0
VODI 0 54 15 253 674 455 13 0
ODI 0 39 4 199 576 968 148 0
CDI 0 37 8 203 657 3946 751 4
VCDI 0 22 5 88 861 4863 13853 10764
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 109 2817 119 846 625 107 8 0
OW 12 167 34 389 371 115 41 0
VODI 0 142 18 245 646 238 41 0
ODI 0 105 20 183 566 747 132 3
CDI 0 114 7 389 755 4476 1836 39
VCDI 0 100 13 160 995 4695 12715 10726


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