Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-06-07

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77404 16367 282 2231 832 25 0 0
OW 57 454 54 973 622 77 7 0
VODI 0 187 43 601 1346 326 41 8
ODI 0 122 30 409 1191 787 175 22
CDI 0 236 51 675 1605 3422 1704 80
VCDI 0 188 24 374 1505 8896 31736 31879
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78098 16545 246 2369 628 25 0 0
OW 58 503 66 817 644 137 13 0
VODI 0 226 57 612 1259 449 68 5
ODI 0 148 30 430 990 939 247 21
CDI 0 260 51 665 1661 3722 1795 74
VCDI 0 209 25 420 1385 7282 30506 33363
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78231 17577 235 1822 447 22 0 0
OW 61 447 117 1018 377 55 6 0
VODI 0 334 46 1009 1144 184 10 0
ODI 0 247 30 419 1790 646 67 0
CDI 0 353 56 527 2230 4942 1270 13
VCDI 0 192 25 207 1158 5647 28520 35567
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-06-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79695 16566 238 1631 523 40 0 0
OW 55 619 116 1020 538 71 5 0
VODI 0 406 59 909 1424 220 40 0
ODI 0 323 36 487 1470 894 134 0
CDI 0 402 63 621 2849 4386 1683 13
VCDI 0 189 21 191 1136 8675 26912 32388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79695 16624 252 1764 565 47 0 0
OW 55 516 101 876 513 49 8 0
VODI 0 435 59 907 1415 277 42 0
ODI 0 297 35 493 1378 921 172 0
CDI 0 427 63 621 2839 4131 1591 12
VCDI 0 206 23 198 1230 8861 26961 32389

Date: 2018-06-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79701 16914 293 1809 684 51 0 0
OW 54 680 89 902 721 101 11 0
VODI 0 537 67 774 1534 379 68 0
ODI 0 341 36 501 1276 1146 302 0
CDI 0 283 42 641 2805 4906 2268 10
VCDI 0 108 14 246 1037 6890 34468 24359
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79701 17009 308 1967 688 52 1 0
OW 54 572 72 789 715 87 18 0
VODI 0 519 61 709 1528 445 95 0
ODI 0 298 39 474 1196 1109 325 0
CDI 0 313 44 659 2857 4640 2063 11
VCDI 0 152 17 275 1073 7140 34615 24358

Date: 2018-06-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80006 17811 323 1551 559 53 0 0
OW 51 663 120 1093 376 69 1 0
VODI 0 284 57 1417 1466 102 9 0
ODI 0 230 14 420 3203 589 53 0
CDI 0 229 17 542 3646 7893 1334 3
VCDI 0 119 5 95 930 7055 27503 27157
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80006 17130 338 1963 754 104 3 0
OW 51 563 56 790 843 152 21 0
VODI 0 554 47 658 1532 492 101 0
ODI 0 456 47 497 1308 1074 571 0
CDI 0 476 30 810 3536 5787 1868 36
VCDI 0 157 18 400 2207 8152 26336 27124

Date: 2018-06-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80830 17601 315 1941 721 29 0 0
OW 44 511 110 1325 762 84 2 0
VODI 2 184 35 968 2004 386 10 0
ODI 0 48 18 543 2781 1265 114 0
CDI 0 27 11 477 3332 9518 2100 32
VCDI 0 46 5 102 624 10614 24978 22549
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 80822 16433 309 2035 1042 127 7 0
OW 54 586 46 756 919 260 35 0
VODI 0 628 45 727 1427 589 85 0
ODI 0 429 46 538 1561 1606 439 19
CDI 0 241 32 1011 4237 7888 3136 179
VCDI 0 100 16 289 1038 11426 23502 22383

Date: 2018-06-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81928 17470 329 2018 929 37 0 0
OW 36 532 118 1363 967 121 10 0
VODI 1 191 45 1028 2105 590 23 0
ODI 0 70 13 534 2969 2002 196 0
CDI 0 43 12 337 2724 9160 2550 4
VCDI 0 23 5 93 2002 9856 24238 20376
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 81917 16118 289 1965 1249 142 11 0
OW 48 734 72 728 878 285 44 0
VODI 0 768 57 803 1427 732 130 0
ODI 0 390 62 802 1930 1553 577 3
CDI 0 217 29 909 4090 9283 4233 40
VCDI 0 102 13 166 2122 9771 22022 20337


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