Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-05-31

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-06-04

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1086 20 92 0 0 0 0
OW 0 80 10 76 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 9 94 64 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 30 143 14 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 167 484 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 20 1341 12388 20740
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 1080 22 114 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 4 61 21 3 0 0
VODI 0 31 6 44 89 17 1 0
ODI 0 10 5 49 62 55 3 0
CDI 0 2 2 44 198 409 86 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 26 1359 12304 20740

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 3 22 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 57 6 68 21 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 19 17 17 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 5 13 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 58 801 1904
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 5 1 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 15 2 20 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 2 24 15 5 0 0
ODI 0 31 4 48 18 20 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 5 8 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 58 795 1904

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 9 47 2 0 0
OW 0 7 4 40 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 63 7 78 98 3 0 0
ODI 0 69 5 163 145 11 0 0
CDI 0 49 10 95 108 181 8 0
VCDI 0 65 9 103 137 1090 5625 1710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 9 53 2 0 0
OW 0 2 4 30 46 1 0 0
VODI 0 25 4 22 86 10 0 0
ODI 0 39 4 80 95 5 0 0
CDI 0 92 12 182 71 114 83 0
VCDI 0 95 11 165 225 1155 5550 1710

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 100 1374 12 14 4 0 0 0
OW 10 101 15 80 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 28 7 91 63 0 0 0
ODI 0 5 3 27 134 25 0 0
CDI 0 0 3 15 130 246 59 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 167 2168 765
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 100 1274 8 15 1 0 0 0
OW 10 112 7 34 11 0 0 0
VODI 0 87 10 81 50 1 0 0
ODI 0 27 9 48 93 38 0 0
CDI 0 8 6 49 162 252 97 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 147 2130 765

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 6 4 0 1 0
ODI 0 0 2 25 18 5 4 0
CDI 0 6 2 51 155 103 22 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 30 222 2900 3690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 10 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 5 9 8 13 0
CDI 0 6 4 77 145 58 115 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 52 254 2798 3690

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 8 5 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 42 8 8 8 1 3 0
VODI 0 68 17 125 79 35 9 0
ODI 0 101 10 64 60 25 22 0
CDI 0 169 19 96 182 107 111 10
VCDI 0 118 9 62 147 516 2669 406
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 11 5 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 18 2 2 16 15 5 0
VODI 0 30 9 48 54 22 9 0
ODI 0 38 12 90 42 28 86 8
CDI 0 192 23 110 114 71 264 17
VCDI 0 217 17 106 250 548 2450 391

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 2 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 3 35 7 0 0
ODI 0 4 2 18 151 28 4 0
CDI 0 35 12 125 748 1110 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 190 1493 1992 305
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 12 8 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 4 49 22 23 0
CDI 0 4 2 53 519 525 202 0
VCDI 0 35 12 92 546 2083 1829 305

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6972 3083 28 108 9 0 0 0
OW 0 75 13 121 16 1 0 0
VODI 0 3 4 167 80 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 15 237 48 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 274 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 4 27 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6972 3110 35 204 18 1 0 0
OW 0 48 3 117 46 12 0 0
VODI 0 3 7 54 184 47 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 36 89 120 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 33 158 13 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 16 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6777 2859 20 184 12 0 0 0
OW 0 15 15 139 40 1 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 87 132 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 263 59 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 89 701 105 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 39 134 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6777 2846 21 271 76 0 0 0
OW 0 28 14 59 115 31 1 0
VODI 0 0 0 75 173 102 5 0
ODI 0 0 0 11 84 289 32 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 88 391 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 6 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9163 3109 44 298 48 0 0 0
OW 0 13 4 61 29 0 0 0
VODI 0 4 2 88 60 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 52 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9163 3117 45 327 72 0 0 0
OW 0 7 4 74 50 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 1 59 57 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 10 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 847 30 105 4 0 0 0
OW 0 73 16 105 31 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 5 106 155 2 0 0
ODI 0 15 2 12 339 60 3 0
CDI 0 14 5 41 121 1311 281 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 22 452 1620 3
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 836 30 131 13 0 0 0
OW 0 79 12 89 78 1 5 0
VODI 0 22 9 71 175 38 10 0
ODI 0 14 1 31 174 160 14 0
CDI 0 21 6 47 208 1209 689 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 24 417 1186 3

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 777 15 129 25 0 0 0
OW 0 53 1 103 48 5 0 0
VODI 0 13 4 157 124 28 5 0
ODI 0 0 2 73 209 93 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 216 459 280 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 248 315 4637 515
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 698 15 184 66 11 4 0
OW 0 77 2 54 69 66 7 0
VODI 0 48 2 95 100 97 70 0
ODI 0 20 1 65 109 94 140 0
CDI 0 0 2 74 195 313 394 0
VCDI 0 0 0 29 331 319 4321 515

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13428 3910 70 990 309 21 0 0
OW 0 12 8 154 103 22 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 176 44 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 241 83 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 34 439 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 3 49 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 13428 3910 73 1085 385 51 1 0
OW 0 12 3 57 180 62 0 0
VODI 0 0 2 42 199 95 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 9 83 187 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 216 71 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 21 0


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