Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76259 14040 222 1561 760 34 0 0
OW 55 173 26 581 747 42 1 0
VODI 0 78 15 211 886 185 5 0
ODI 0 26 10 162 419 407 25 0
CDI 0 0 1 134 622 1808 556 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 955 3718 4373
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77122 13406 200 1619 833 26 0 0
OW 52 249 24 479 740 51 5 0
VODI 0 110 13 164 811 178 6 0
ODI 0 56 12 148 407 377 13 0
CDI 0 4 5 174 681 1883 428 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 1 1085 3194 4544
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76939 13975 211 1825 524 0 0 0
OW 51 129 44 648 436 7 0 0
VODI 0 21 10 341 877 56 0 0
ODI 0 0 1 114 829 385 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 411 2585 365 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 986 3986 3324
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77202 14111 233 2076 407 0 0 0
OW 50 111 50 790 396 0 0 0
VODI 0 11 7 271 887 45 2 0
ODI 0 1 0 59 819 452 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 360 2574 316 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 660 3257 3934
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77202 14099 237 2298 524 0 0 0
OW 50 122 47 590 345 0 1 0
VODI 0 11 6 236 912 43 1 0
ODI 0 2 0 68 701 542 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 387 2513 320 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 633 3253 3934

Date: 2018-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77410 14320 229 2249 477 0 0 0
OW 50 124 31 551 388 21 3 0
VODI 0 18 9 278 864 197 2 0
ODI 0 2 1 56 525 575 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 15 274 2082 758 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 768 4452 2353
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77410 14298 229 2389 532 2 0 0
OW 50 146 32 436 416 24 2 0
VODI 0 18 8 242 818 212 3 0
ODI 0 2 1 58 466 623 19 0
CDI 0 0 0 24 296 2084 820 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 698 4389 2353

Date: 2018-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78132 14410 190 1586 347 15 0 0
OW 50 207 51 537 160 8 0 0
VODI 0 19 14 480 493 46 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 48 983 176 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 289 2562 406 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 349 3763 3759
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78132 14430 203 1909 498 39 1 0
OW 50 158 32 383 391 67 1 0
VODI 0 36 13 257 725 220 6 0
ODI 0 10 5 77 335 706 35 0
CDI 0 2 2 41 323 1905 925 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 219 3205 3759

Date: 2018-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78784 14374 177 1186 264 10 0 0
OW 47 220 53 575 134 25 0 0
VODI 0 31 9 472 593 69 0 0
ODI 0 12 1 59 790 334 4 0
CDI 0 2 1 36 431 2192 648 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 283 3481 3803
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78786 14410 186 1481 460 60 0 0
OW 45 152 43 450 381 75 0 0
VODI 0 44 6 284 583 272 12 0
ODI 0 18 5 55 453 679 48 0
CDI 0 15 1 58 335 1607 1107 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 220 2966 3803

Date: 2018-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79617 13542 165 1135 348 21 0 0
OW 43 231 36 532 216 29 2 0
VODI 0 84 17 273 717 110 10 0
ODI 0 24 2 76 603 527 64 0
CDI 0 8 3 37 737 1732 574 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 1231 4055 2285
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79617 13565 170 1479 719 126 2 0
OW 43 166 30 329 415 96 12 0
VODI 0 86 11 116 558 432 57 0
ODI 0 39 6 66 389 582 152 0
CDI 0 33 6 63 554 1783 633 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 631 3849 2285


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