Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1465 41 115 18 1 0 0
OW 0 251 13 154 103 10 0 0
VODI 0 186 14 153 221 46 3 0
ODI 0 110 11 105 315 120 52 0
CDI 0 62 21 322 792 451 405 25
VCDI 0 0 0 241 1036 2385 12566 24045
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 12 1423 33 133 18 5 0 0
OW 0 290 16 173 143 8 0 0
VODI 0 216 16 183 251 22 5 0
ODI 0 101 11 145 427 95 29 0
CDI 0 75 20 240 861 688 329 5
VCDI 0 4 5 351 1114 3361 13862 21196
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 17 1919 37 145 6 0 0 0
OW 0 274 30 264 87 5 0 0
VODI 0 139 17 288 352 37 1 0
ODI 0 51 16 214 552 88 11 0
CDI 0 66 6 347 1261 965 252 15
VCDI 0 0 0 97 645 2879 14218 20565
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 2145 47 193 53 4 0 0
OW 4 239 19 246 223 30 0 0
VODI 0 122 20 236 369 124 4 0
ODI 0 69 10 222 414 223 49 0
CDI 0 32 16 471 930 832 600 4
VCDI 0 13 4 184 688 1970 14226 20795
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 36 2208 50 239 56 6 0 0
OW 4 189 16 209 208 26 0 0
VODI 0 109 21 236 333 120 6 0
ODI 0 70 8 202 402 220 49 0
CDI 0 31 17 464 965 777 537 3
VCDI 0 13 4 202 713 2034 14287 20796

Date: 2018-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61 2260 50 276 109 11 0 0
OW 7 305 19 258 292 41 6 0
VODI 0 160 30 266 340 169 44 0
ODI 0 99 17 274 368 243 97 0
CDI 0 51 25 440 683 755 611 13
VCDI 0 49 11 238 725 2332 13876 20255
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 61 2345 47 304 118 10 2 0
OW 7 229 25 227 270 39 8 0
VODI 0 149 26 279 314 181 44 0
ODI 0 94 18 253 378 247 102 0
CDI 0 50 22 455 706 706 543 0
VCDI 0 57 14 234 731 2368 13935 20268

Date: 2018-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100 2536 46 338 106 8 0 0
OW 10 221 34 339 153 20 0 0
VODI 0 183 26 448 451 57 6 0
ODI 0 89 12 293 713 206 21 0
CDI 0 63 18 184 545 1221 481 0
VCDI 0 65 9 111 432 2247 19531 14543
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 100 2348 44 418 181 26 4 0
OW 10 260 22 198 227 101 12 0
VODI 0 202 23 277 372 173 87 0
ODI 0 131 19 260 416 206 183 0
CDI 0 121 26 366 580 934 838 0
VCDI 0 95 11 194 624 2319 18915 14543

Date: 2018-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133 2642 61 478 184 9 0 0
OW 11 241 50 326 253 34 0 0
VODI 0 179 19 305 566 69 11 0
ODI 0 110 14 183 542 305 50 0
CDI 0 84 22 168 609 1334 600 4
VCDI 0 85 9 119 451 2775 12044 20787
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 133 2315 54 500 255 46 3 0
OW 11 287 23 151 259 100 21 0
VODI 0 292 34 238 449 173 103 0
ODI 0 203 26 265 503 314 161 0
CDI 0 161 28 289 639 1336 1185 4
VCDI 0 83 10 136 500 2557 11232 20787

Date: 2018-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 155 2803 75 507 263 21 0 0
OW 11 283 35 296 354 39 0 0
VODI 0 154 21 347 577 156 34 0
ODI 0 92 16 127 454 346 120 0
CDI 0 81 15 179 547 1319 717 12
VCDI 0 95 9 142 417 1751 15982 17314
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 155 2381 61 466 367 58 10 0
OW 11 324 17 184 247 131 30 0
VODI 0 394 31 230 492 198 116 0
ODI 0 223 29 330 449 326 231 0
CDI 0 129 26 273 750 1559 2267 58
VCDI 0 57 7 115 307 1360 14199 17268


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