Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-31

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76267 15567 268 1708 779 35 0 0
OW 55 429 39 772 860 52 5 0
VODI 0 267 32 387 1146 255 20 0
ODI 0 139 22 311 824 599 100 15
CDI 0 99 27 516 1679 2590 1374 63
VCDI 0 12 2 415 1801 7837 27631 42049
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77134 14943 237 1759 851 31 0 0
OW 52 561 41 672 885 64 13 0
VODI 0 338 35 400 1115 240 13 0
ODI 0 164 28 381 915 540 74 0
CDI 0 150 32 594 1833 2988 1258 7
VCDI 0 40 16 571 1731 9798 28466 38078
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76956 16009 252 1980 531 0 0 0
OW 51 442 88 951 529 16 5 0
VODI 0 197 40 715 1316 137 16 0
ODI 0 83 30 426 1523 551 60 0
CDI 0 287 40 617 2026 4058 1004 15
VCDI 0 75 10 217 1263 8261 31767 34504
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77238 16368 289 2290 461 4 0 0
OW 54 392 77 1067 640 39 7 0
VODI 0 160 42 591 1344 212 16 7
ODI 0 111 22 381 1345 770 98 21
CDI 0 246 45 700 1778 3939 1309 53
VCDI 0 149 17 330 1479 8490 30922 33545
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77238 16429 298 2559 581 6 0 0
OW 54 340 70 827 584 44 8 0
VODI 0 150 42 549 1323 198 16 4
ODI 0 111 17 385 1207 858 100 24
CDI 0 228 47 689 1834 3890 1262 58
VCDI 0 168 18 350 1518 8458 30966 33540

Date: 2018-06-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77471 16695 287 2551 588 11 0 0
OW 57 466 58 844 695 66 11 0
VODI 0 196 49 618 1289 415 68 8
ODI 0 133 26 431 1013 913 190 24
CDI 0 229 53 662 1574 3436 1794 71
VCDI 0 209 28 392 1406 8273 32100 31648
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77471 16763 285 2729 653 12 2 0
OW 57 407 65 685 702 75 17 0
VODI 0 186 43 592 1222 438 61 5
ODI 0 123 25 410 959 959 196 27
CDI 0 230 55 700 1612 3458 1826 62
VCDI 0 219 28 382 1417 8172 32061 31657

Date: 2018-06-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78232 17071 244 1945 458 23 0 0
OW 60 488 97 909 331 31 3 0
VODI 0 271 61 1116 1091 154 16 0
ODI 0 194 26 468 2009 468 50 0
CDI 0 273 51 476 1983 5428 1067 10
VCDI 0 183 18 176 819 5700 35010 30038
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78232 16905 255 2356 684 65 5 0
OW 60 453 57 597 643 192 18 0
VODI 0 271 52 615 1195 452 107 0
ODI 0 179 36 476 917 1026 331 8
CDI 0 325 57 654 1754 3724 2279 17
VCDI 0 347 40 392 1498 6345 33406 30023

Date: 2018-06-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78917 17199 247 1688 452 21 0 0
OW 58 528 122 1009 469 69 0 0
VODI 0 379 40 930 1323 185 21 0
ODI 0 291 29 389 1673 764 89 0
CDI 0 355 59 526 2171 4948 1785 4
VCDI 0 225 23 217 831 8789 25950 34273
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 78919 16851 243 2000 724 109 3 0
OW 56 478 71 626 674 203 26 0
VODI 0 382 57 631 1162 509 153 0
ODI 0 336 42 452 1166 1126 337 0
CDI 0 527 63 701 2023 4147 3046 4
VCDI 0 403 44 349 1170 8682 24280 34273

Date: 2018-06-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79772 16664 253 1702 624 42 0 0
OW 54 711 90 945 596 76 6 0
VODI 0 553 62 822 1437 315 53 0
ODI 0 348 42 505 1371 1071 223 0
CDI 0 355 56 608 2788 4692 1754 14
VCDI 0 139 17 223 968 8463 34950 23684
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 79772 16077 235 1965 1086 187 12 0
OW 54 569 60 549 677 273 52 0
VODI 0 601 52 460 1121 748 209 0
ODI 0 491 53 537 1013 1120 516 34
CDI 0 568 83 926 2442 4825 3573 176
VCDI 0 464 37 368 1445 7506 32624 23488


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