Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 581 9 75 4 0 0 0
OW 0 131 12 41 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 17 256 123 6 0 0
ODI 0 123 10 165 286 53 12 0
CDI 0 87 20 196 435 315 235 2
VCDI 0 9 3 139 1072 3433 16284 21628
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 1 615 12 39 0 0 0 0
OW 0 241 13 110 19 0 0 0
VODI 0 344 25 122 115 16 1 0
ODI 0 185 17 178 140 54 10 0
CDI 0 164 24 171 435 238 294 9
VCDI 0 22 12 189 1098 2902 15323 22728
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 6 1038 34 86 1 0 0 0
OW 1 377 33 348 95 1 0 0
VODI 0 128 14 126 228 14 1 0
ODI 0 88 10 74 269 66 24 0
CDI 0 53 28 269 750 554 215 13
VCDI 0 0 0 107 1019 2717 12571 24508
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1281 40 131 5 0 0 0
OW 0 407 9 153 89 8 0 0
VODI 0 163 15 152 215 39 1 0
ODI 0 114 11 106 278 141 27 2
CDI 0 69 21 276 715 532 394 18
VCDI 0 2 1 224 1036 2670 14441 22072
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1183 36 117 5 0 0 0
OW 0 513 15 165 66 5 0 0
VODI 0 161 13 156 250 47 2 0
ODI 0 100 8 101 272 159 24 0
CDI 0 77 20 270 704 501 388 15
VCDI 0 2 5 233 1041 2678 14449 22077

Date: 2018-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1434 31 134 28 4 0 0
OW 0 271 14 151 137 7 0 0
VODI 0 195 12 186 229 47 5 0
ODI 0 93 14 140 335 108 47 0
CDI 0 60 20 291 841 519 388 59
VCDI 0 0 0 350 1032 2193 12173 24310
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1456 33 157 38 4 0 0
OW 0 253 12 146 104 5 0 0
VODI 0 181 12 170 274 54 8 0
ODI 0 97 15 139 333 120 59 0
CDI 0 66 18 296 855 489 352 70
VCDI 0 0 1 344 998 2206 12194 24299

Date: 2018-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19 1663 35 93 15 1 0 0
OW 0 391 20 169 106 4 0 0
VODI 0 152 29 268 389 21 0 0
ODI 0 35 17 185 594 159 3 0
CDI 0 19 9 346 1153 1173 206 3
VCDI 0 0 0 99 647 2680 14886 20277
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 19 1538 35 152 44 3 0 0
OW 0 270 19 112 133 5 0 0
VODI 0 215 13 144 338 78 7 0
ODI 0 119 13 118 380 216 15 0
CDI 0 109 19 264 697 951 409 8
VCDI 0 9 11 370 1312 2785 14664 20272

Date: 2018-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 28 2044 42 175 26 2 0 0
OW 3 215 23 294 149 8 0 0
VODI 0 105 18 241 432 52 0 0
ODI 0 47 16 187 555 186 16 0
CDI 0 24 11 346 1153 1122 216 2
VCDI 0 0 0 138 619 4146 12763 20462
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 28 1688 37 214 54 2 0 0
OW 3 252 15 158 138 7 3 0
VODI 0 236 13 195 333 55 13 0
ODI 0 126 17 156 425 165 23 0
CDI 0 120 19 312 897 1055 389 13
VCDI 0 13 9 346 1087 4232 12567 20451

Date: 2018-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 2173 46 225 84 5 0 0
OW 7 289 19 265 240 55 0 0
VODI 0 148 21 256 346 166 23 0
ODI 0 85 15 252 396 191 102 0
CDI 0 47 24 464 785 655 607 27
VCDI 0 30 8 212 735 2234 13671 20910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 48 1788 37 218 110 6 3 0
OW 7 277 16 129 121 13 5 0
VODI 0 245 20 169 271 160 17 0
ODI 0 155 12 171 334 220 72 20
CDI 0 252 25 473 745 744 911 107
VCDI 0 55 23 514 1005 2163 13395 20810


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