Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-24

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75745 14074 175 1300 760 24 0 0
OW 61 277 59 709 640 32 0 0
VODI 0 152 34 841 1322 149 11 0
ODI 0 136 19 327 1047 434 98 0
CDI 0 87 20 438 1306 1297 586 2
VCDI 0 9 3 139 1673 7337 34511 41214
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76503 13732 182 1283 918 32 0 0
OW 60 445 61 749 796 95 1 0
VODI 0 433 54 574 1062 306 40 0
ODI 0 234 26 321 610 345 80 0
CDI 0 173 30 437 1259 1498 808 19
VCDI 0 22 12 202 1541 6583 35457 40065
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76568 14486 228 1323 666 20 0 0
OW 60 598 93 1113 592 18 1 0
VODI 0 191 25 508 1451 74 10 0
ODI 0 99 20 250 979 474 43 0
CDI 0 53 28 400 1785 2802 674 13
VCDI 0 0 0 157 1519 6526 30464 42737
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76217 15321 246 1603 670 20 0 0
OW 56 588 50 846 802 36 0 0
VODI 0 240 28 396 1287 200 6 0
ODI 0 132 21 305 800 594 57 2
CDI 0 69 21 440 1657 2895 1304 39
VCDI 0 2 1 323 1732 6679 29653 41710
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76217 15238 256 1782 912 19 0 0
OW 56 669 40 681 742 44 0 0
VODI 0 242 29 388 1115 243 8 0
ODI 0 124 17 279 816 598 48 0
CDI 0 77 20 454 1629 2676 1275 36
VCDI 0 2 5 329 1734 6844 29689 41715

Date: 2018-05-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76934 15020 257 1679 899 50 0 0
OW 53 482 42 676 877 63 6 0
VODI 0 314 28 428 1070 271 12 0
ODI 0 150 30 362 819 625 97 0
CDI 0 116 28 588 1684 2737 1386 59
VCDI 0 25 11 582 1626 8719 26641 41602
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76935 15084 271 1893 1163 59 1 0
OW 52 418 29 503 722 84 5 0
VODI 0 282 27 408 1015 287 15 0
ODI 0 166 29 336 800 640 108 0
CDI 0 136 28 599 1685 2617 1359 70
VCDI 0 21 12 576 1590 8778 26654 41591

Date: 2018-05-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76887 15569 245 1531 675 19 0 0
OW 52 644 65 769 610 12 4 0
VODI 0 207 56 780 1304 103 11 0
ODI 0 68 31 410 1755 451 42 0
CDI 0 191 38 632 1966 4424 1039 3
VCDI 0 37 6 200 1129 8254 32535 34294
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76888 15398 263 1956 1356 68 4 0
OW 51 451 39 422 725 64 7 0
VODI 0 315 32 392 1039 341 33 0
ODI 0 209 32 340 802 793 107 0
CDI 0 259 49 644 1569 3317 1467 8
VCDI 0 84 26 568 1948 8680 32013 34289

Date: 2018-05-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77298 16021 265 2063 526 2 0 0
OW 53 379 74 1003 660 32 6 0
VODI 0 145 34 672 1354 137 13 1
ODI 0 89 27 365 1507 700 69 1
CDI 0 257 42 581 1971 4171 1060 3
VCDI 0 102 15 277 1366 10668 28836 34203
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77298 15445 251 2479 1162 23 1 0
OW 53 504 49 424 712 73 10 0
VODI 0 357 44 503 894 311 47 1
ODI 0 214 37 384 900 793 109 2
CDI 0 366 55 687 1785 3747 1722 60
VCDI 0 107 21 484 1931 10763 28095 34145

Date: 2018-06-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77404 16367 282 2231 832 25 0 0
OW 57 454 54 973 622 77 7 0
VODI 0 187 43 601 1346 326 41 8
ODI 0 122 30 409 1191 787 175 22
CDI 0 236 51 675 1605 3422 1704 80
VCDI 0 188 24 374 1505 8896 31736 31879
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 77404 15718 258 2583 1325 56 6 0
OW 57 498 50 393 612 86 15 0
VODI 0 408 43 415 872 412 43 18
ODI 0 290 43 388 746 870 182 63
CDI 0 541 59 856 1720 3585 2442 219
VCDI 0 99 31 628 1826 8524 30975 31689


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