Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74425 13815 164 929 663 2 0 0
OW 64 191 26 415 432 44 0 0
VODI 0 36 16 360 703 196 17 0
ODI 0 12 2 91 757 416 59 0
CDI 0 16 2 95 1178 1552 217 0
VCDI 0 4 2 62 482 1153 5809 4693
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75047 13496 141 1044 642 63 0 0
OW 63 214 47 415 518 53 8 0
VODI 0 27 11 368 664 147 27 0
ODI 0 15 2 128 667 303 46 0
CDI 0 16 9 177 1231 894 128 0
VCDI 0 0 1 56 753 2497 5807 3375
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74986 13867 175 1106 608 39 0 0
OW 61 97 35 507 518 21 0 0
VODI 0 6 8 317 1174 117 1 0
ODI 0 11 6 52 1232 577 25 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 683 1202 135 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 121 2130 5733 3512
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75564 13464 169 1173 726 29 0 0
OW 61 120 36 582 643 28 1 0
VODI 0 44 16 415 1269 123 11 0
ODI 0 1 6 139 873 474 67 0
CDI 0 0 0 149 818 669 139 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 229 2029 5917 3116
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75564 13483 176 1278 787 32 0 0
OW 61 101 29 467 629 26 4 0
VODI 0 26 12 406 1239 134 9 0
ODI 0 19 10 140 807 448 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 162 827 622 153 0
VCDI 0 0 0 5 269 2090 5903 3116

Date: 2018-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76274 13112 162 1268 796 40 0 0
OW 60 150 39 651 701 41 6 0
VODI 0 78 24 494 1188 194 22 0
ODI 0 29 12 141 523 318 80 0
CDI 0 4 2 212 747 996 192 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 223 1691 4520 4097
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76274 13158 169 1382 905 47 2 0
OW 60 107 37 473 657 39 7 0
VODI 0 72 19 548 1112 210 19 0
ODI 0 29 9 136 475 270 88 0
CDI 0 7 5 227 780 1031 244 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 249 1683 4460 4096

Date: 2018-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76449 13209 178 1162 662 14 0 0
OW 60 270 69 558 417 35 2 0
VODI 0 77 23 719 970 62 5 0
ODI 0 12 3 147 1059 264 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 63 810 1740 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1022 4516 4248
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76450 13198 181 1370 1147 73 0 0
OW 59 252 57 472 687 74 18 0
VODI 0 53 21 447 716 291 47 0
ODI 0 48 8 125 393 231 62 0
CDI 0 17 6 235 740 1028 447 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 235 1440 4224 4248

Date: 2018-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76158 13919 195 1338 619 10 0 0
OW 58 180 38 761 592 15 0 0
VODI 0 74 10 235 1209 98 0 0
ODI 0 18 12 152 553 392 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 141 769 1880 442 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1035 3817 4370
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76158 13729 184 1495 1390 31 0 0
OW 58 213 44 481 591 133 1 0
VODI 0 78 7 258 592 289 15 0
ODI 0 89 5 83 365 258 48 0
CDI 0 82 15 288 593 1279 547 0
VCDI 0 0 0 22 211 1440 3658 4370

Date: 2018-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76259 14040 222 1561 760 34 0 0
OW 55 173 26 581 747 42 1 0
VODI 0 78 15 211 886 185 5 0
ODI 0 26 10 162 419 407 25 0
CDI 0 0 1 134 622 1808 556 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 3 955 3718 4373
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76259 13654 188 1565 1672 110 4 0
OW 55 349 49 322 358 217 12 0
VODI 0 99 13 280 482 203 23 0
ODI 0 104 7 149 270 307 9 0
CDI 0 111 17 330 502 1664 792 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 153 930 3465 4373


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