Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 319 2 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 126 1 17 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 9 93 35 2 0 0
ODI 0 50 7 136 104 52 0 0
CDI 0 62 11 146 270 253 126 0
VCDI 0 4 1 96 519 3730 18089 21478
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 308 1 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 156 2 15 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 88 11 77 71 2 0 0
ODI 0 81 3 55 223 39 26 0
CDI 0 104 11 108 348 293 134 15
VCDI 0 48 9 138 631 4902 18504 19457
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 541 6 54 0 0 0 0
OW 0 91 10 68 12 0 0 0
VODI 0 43 3 94 175 10 0 0
ODI 0 43 6 86 354 66 15 0
CDI 0 64 9 93 477 421 138 19
VCDI 0 2 3 52 613 4284 18884 19130
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 554 10 82 2 0 0 0
OW 0 115 11 47 22 0 0 0
VODI 0 72 13 229 99 7 0 0
ODI 0 63 6 234 251 46 10 0
CDI 0 77 12 184 422 311 203 3
VCDI 0 10 4 131 907 4086 17683 19960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 563 11 96 5 0 0 0
OW 0 98 10 37 24 0 0 0
VODI 0 73 13 231 147 10 0 0
ODI 0 71 4 234 216 55 11 0
CDI 0 82 15 181 451 361 225 3
VCDI 0 4 3 128 860 4024 17660 19960

Date: 2018-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 595 9 58 0 0 0 0
OW 0 163 11 66 41 0 0 0
VODI 0 156 19 248 155 8 0 0
ODI 0 126 15 119 270 50 3 0
CDI 0 120 22 171 384 315 256 0
VCDI 0 11 6 145 1059 3256 15996 22013
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 622 11 81 5 0 0 0
OW 0 130 10 105 57 0 0 0
VODI 0 172 21 207 202 15 0 0
ODI 0 130 14 114 221 67 4 0
CDI 0 107 19 161 408 335 257 1
VCDI 0 10 7 139 1016 3212 15994 22012

Date: 2018-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 918 12 38 0 0 0 0
OW 0 393 37 197 35 1 0 0
VODI 0 196 20 327 201 14 0 0
ODI 0 80 10 90 291 76 8 0
CDI 0 40 21 244 784 577 196 27
VCDI 0 0 0 69 645 2600 13790 23927
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2 694 14 86 15 0 0 0
OW 0 261 18 149 42 1 0 0
VODI 0 290 26 190 130 45 2 0
ODI 0 186 8 140 228 68 34 0
CDI 0 178 22 183 539 380 315 40
VCDI 0 18 12 217 1002 2774 13643 23914

Date: 2018-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1107 30 90 4 0 0 0
OW 1 535 26 213 69 5 0 0
VODI 0 146 14 154 213 18 1 0
ODI 0 95 8 106 291 93 13 0
CDI 0 56 21 244 731 531 248 2
VCDI 0 5 1 189 1040 2732 12664 24162
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 960 23 88 12 0 0 0
OW 1 303 12 68 39 5 0 0
VODI 0 277 22 196 168 44 2 0
ODI 0 186 14 127 311 129 16 0
CDI 0 206 25 211 617 542 386 4
VCDI 0 12 4 306 1201 2659 12522 24160

Date: 2018-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1465 41 115 18 1 0 0
OW 0 251 13 154 103 10 0 0
VODI 0 186 14 153 221 46 3 0
ODI 0 110 11 105 315 120 52 0
CDI 0 62 21 322 792 451 405 25
VCDI 0 0 0 241 1036 2385 12566 24045
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8 1068 27 102 27 5 0 0
OW 0 283 14 69 92 13 2 0
VODI 0 274 19 160 201 78 50 0
ODI 0 193 11 103 253 151 84 0
CDI 0 245 26 304 754 494 795 65
VCDI 0 11 3 352 1158 2272 12095 24005


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