Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-17

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74425 14137 166 948 663 2 0 0
OW 64 322 29 433 433 44 0 0
VODI 0 153 28 461 738 198 17 0
ODI 0 64 13 253 870 470 65 0
CDI 0 78 13 281 1606 1933 438 28
VCDI 0 8 3 158 1101 6241 35828 44336
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75047 13812 142 1050 642 63 0 0
OW 63 391 49 430 518 53 8 0
VODI 0 145 23 447 735 149 27 0
ODI 0 112 11 193 895 355 81 0
CDI 0 123 21 348 1636 1367 355 21
VCDI 0 48 10 204 1563 9528 35610 40773
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74986 14444 186 1168 608 39 0 0
OW 61 190 47 594 531 21 0 0
VODI 0 50 12 430 1363 128 1 0
ODI 0 54 12 153 1633 653 42 0
CDI 0 64 9 140 1284 1806 383 19
VCDI 0 2 3 52 835 8501 38908 37636
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75564 14043 183 1262 728 29 0 0
OW 61 240 47 649 665 28 1 0
VODI 0 120 30 666 1380 132 11 0
ODI 0 65 13 386 1157 539 84 0
CDI 0 77 12 353 1369 1125 454 5
VCDI 0 10 4 131 1383 8601 35776 39665
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75564 14070 191 1389 792 32 0 0
OW 61 205 39 521 653 26 4 0
VODI 0 103 26 653 1395 147 9 0
ODI 0 91 15 386 1053 518 85 0
CDI 0 82 15 365 1394 1094 468 3
VCDI 0 4 3 133 1395 8637 35760 39667

Date: 2018-05-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76274 13763 171 1326 796 40 0 0
OW 60 324 55 733 742 41 6 0
VODI 0 241 44 763 1344 203 22 0
ODI 0 161 27 278 809 383 99 0
CDI 0 127 25 419 1235 1483 614 17
VCDI 0 11 6 155 1600 7256 35528 39867
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76274 13842 184 1470 910 47 2 0
OW 60 244 48 592 714 39 7 0
VODI 0 249 41 774 1319 225 19 0
ODI 0 163 23 267 711 350 112 0
CDI 0 119 25 418 1260 1490 677 17
VCDI 0 10 7 153 1612 7255 35452 39867

Date: 2018-05-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76451 14202 190 1200 662 14 0 0
OW 60 676 112 774 452 36 2 0
VODI 0 279 43 1080 1178 77 5 0
ODI 0 93 14 266 1370 362 18 0
CDI 0 40 21 324 1747 2810 533 27
VCDI 0 0 0 85 898 6120 32653 42174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76452 13971 199 1460 1162 73 0 0
OW 59 518 77 642 729 75 18 0
VODI 0 348 47 658 852 339 49 0
ODI 0 238 16 281 634 318 101 0
CDI 0 197 29 447 1352 1556 879 40
VCDI 0 18 12 241 1578 7058 32164 42161

Date: 2018-05-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76166 15091 229 1439 623 10 0 0
OW 59 718 68 1018 672 20 0 0
VODI 0 222 26 406 1444 122 1 0
ODI 0 113 20 283 879 540 30 0
CDI 0 56 21 414 1762 2912 883 2
VCDI 0 5 1 263 1621 6878 28476 43555
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76166 14749 214 1594 1402 31 0 0
OW 59 520 56 578 632 138 1 0
VODI 0 358 30 479 787 338 17 0
ODI 0 277 20 226 705 434 70 0
CDI 0 289 41 531 1394 2168 1187 4
VCDI 0 12 4 415 2081 7373 28115 43553

Date: 2018-05-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76267 15567 268 1708 779 35 0 0
OW 55 429 39 772 860 52 5 0
VODI 0 267 32 387 1146 255 20 0
ODI 0 139 22 311 824 599 100 15
CDI 0 99 27 516 1679 2590 1374 63
VCDI 0 12 2 415 1801 7837 27631 42049
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 76267 14775 220 1687 1699 115 4 0
OW 55 639 63 420 452 231 14 0
VODI 0 378 32 461 710 297 73 0
ODI 0 300 20 267 546 516 130 0
CDI 0 358 44 684 1405 2447 2018 98
VCDI 0 63 11 590 2277 7762 26891 42029


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