Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-05-10

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-14

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 536 10 33 4 0 0 0
OW 0 25 5 66 10 1 0 0
VODI 0 7 3 59 62 5 0 0
ODI 0 1 2 44 103 13 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 54 301 235 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 35 1974 10196 23106
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 522 10 43 7 0 0 0
OW 0 11 3 54 16 2 0 0
VODI 0 14 1 40 42 12 0 0
ODI 0 12 2 13 47 21 1 0
CDI 0 10 4 67 106 153 112 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 297 2040 10095 23106

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 268 1448 1417
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 266 1448 1417

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 21 4 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 40 16 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 107 195 61 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 110 1230 4613 3567
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 6 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 8 35 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 96 97 57 38
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 1339 4591 3538

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 496 1 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 119 9 22 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 4 37 25 0 0 0
ODI 0 41 2 32 35 4 0 0
CDI 0 64 12 59 85 30 0 0
VCDI 0 1 3 40 114 365 2374 1637
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 319 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 146 4 16 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 98 6 26 11 0 0 0
ODI 0 58 4 32 26 0 0 0
CDI 0 116 10 67 88 16 2 17
VCDI 0 19 6 56 134 383 2372 1620

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 115 1478 5652
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 16
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 115 1473 5637

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 240 2343 2731
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 3
VCDI 0 0 0 0 12 240 2333 2728

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 13 146 24 9
VCDI 0 0 0 0 6 713 4842 575
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 11 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 5 125 91 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 14 726 4775 584

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5068 3298 41 185 27 0 0 0
OW 0 66 19 197 63 0 0 0
VODI 0 5 7 284 261 1 0 0
ODI 0 5 6 85 774 23 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 303 307 19 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 108 161 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 5068 3257 46 241 47 0 0 0
OW 0 62 9 153 91 0 0 0
VODI 0 37 6 114 174 2 0 0
ODI 0 10 3 84 232 24 5 0
CDI 0 6 5 124 694 150 40 0
VCDI 0 2 4 51 190 263 137 0

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6627 2919 15 82 1 0 0 0
OW 0 34 7 108 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 80 142 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 237 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 45 654 33 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 328 291 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 6627 2906 17 116 5 0 0 0
OW 0 44 4 73 64 0 0 0
VODI 0 3 2 80 139 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 172 52 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 85 472 15 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 508 309 0

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9267 2965 24 150 54 1 0 0
OW 0 20 1 57 77 14 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 17 135 25 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 38 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 54 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 1 9 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 9267 2970 25 183 137 20 1 0
OW 0 15 0 28 80 21 4 0
VODI 0 0 0 13 72 60 23 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 32 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 49 0 6 0 0 0 0
OW 0 5 5 35 6 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 46 59 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 13 94 2 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 16 177 57 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 151 1027 3661 388
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 52 2 10 0 0 0 0
OW 0 2 3 39 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 24 39 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 21 79 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 103 67 5 0
VCDI 0 0 0 10 263 1019 3656 388

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 161 31 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 113 24 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 155 143 54 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 104 1268 5080 1434
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 81 18 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 69 38 22 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 135 95 66 7
VCDI 0 0 0 0 212 1311 5071 1429

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12305 3840 54 512 423 38 0 0
OW 0 58 16 142 234 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 1 79 393 16 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 22 426 302 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 207 515 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 428 133 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 12305 3853 57 537 518 38 0 0
OW 0 19 7 63 216 18 0 0
VODI 0 12 4 73 298 137 0 0
ODI 0 14 2 19 251 271 8 0
CDI 0 0 1 50 260 308 20 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 196 527 114 0


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