Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72213 14073 194 1392 751 126 3 0
OW 63 131 33 383 516 164 12 0
VODI 0 4 2 180 727 415 33 0
ODI 0 3 1 51 432 445 61 0
CDI 0 10 2 46 536 1053 206 0
VCDI 0 8 3 54 275 3035 6722 4742
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72387 14530 185 1469 712 158 0 0
OW 62 111 33 374 510 160 10 0
VODI 0 19 5 178 774 353 23 0
ODI 0 20 0 31 470 417 102 0
CDI 0 21 5 48 523 1285 166 0
VCDI 0 4 1 80 427 2917 7357 3173
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72921 14573 172 1204 512 75 0 0
OW 62 122 51 480 377 71 0 0
VODI 0 20 10 290 853 148 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 63 849 431 3 0
CDI 0 3 1 65 849 1887 189 0
VCDI 0 0 0 35 342 1938 8550 1943
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74313 13777 158 942 444 47 0 0
OW 65 198 40 477 397 49 0 0
VODI 0 40 13 340 788 165 7 0
ODI 0 12 1 72 813 443 37 0
CDI 0 9 2 91 1129 1565 271 0
VCDI 0 0 2 62 537 1319 5785 4690
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74313 13735 154 980 482 45 0 0
OW 65 220 38 404 340 55 0 0
VODI 0 60 19 358 751 148 3 0
ODI 0 12 1 85 874 380 30 0
CDI 0 9 2 90 1111 1520 195 0
VCDI 0 0 2 67 550 1440 5872 4690

Date: 2018-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74713 13786 160 997 510 48 0 0
OW 63 228 43 432 403 83 3 0
VODI 0 30 15 422 632 157 32 0
ODI 0 15 0 115 727 241 68 0
CDI 0 14 5 99 1274 1112 256 0
VCDI 0 1 1 48 627 1812 5860 4068
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74713 13796 162 1010 515 63 0 0
OW 63 193 42 464 341 58 0 0
VODI 0 57 13 384 684 136 27 0
ODI 0 13 2 107 758 217 65 0
CDI 0 14 4 65 1252 1025 219 0
VCDI 0 1 1 83 623 1954 5908 4068

Date: 2018-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75058 13584 144 968 509 39 0 0
OW 62 166 41 562 430 15 0 0
VODI 0 12 10 469 1004 45 2 0
ODI 0 6 8 109 1504 397 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 61 811 1617 94 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 140 1843 5907 3475
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75057 13564 157 1130 714 58 1 0
OW 63 140 26 410 470 41 4 0
VODI 0 31 5 312 723 209 23 0
ODI 0 17 4 86 702 374 46 0
CDI 0 14 7 153 1119 1058 141 0
VCDI 0 2 4 78 670 2216 5796 3475

Date: 2018-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75027 13961 170 1243 585 18 0 0
OW 61 94 28 552 615 30 2 0
VODI 0 19 11 301 1239 132 10 0
ODI 0 4 2 87 1046 519 71 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 795 829 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 122 1707 5855 3719
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75026 13828 169 1215 881 49 5 0
OW 62 137 22 400 491 92 11 0
VODI 0 63 9 279 643 305 56 0
ODI 0 26 2 123 655 235 44 0
CDI 0 24 9 183 1266 721 280 3
VCDI 0 0 0 56 466 1833 5715 3716

Date: 2018-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75745 13461 163 1217 756 24 0 0
OW 61 139 46 644 622 32 0 0
VODI 0 63 16 566 1194 141 11 0
ODI 0 12 8 146 735 366 74 0
CDI 0 0 0 221 756 809 121 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 288 1810 5795 3058
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75745 13139 147 1153 1225 91 0 0
OW 61 251 34 299 485 102 7 0
VODI 0 128 24 401 603 173 34 0
ODI 0 82 9 252 594 195 45 0
CDI 0 61 17 499 925 827 281 0
VCDI 0 14 2 190 519 1794 5634 3058


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