Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 66 10 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 10 74 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 43 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 4 37 117 23 0 0
CDI 0 23 2 73 257 356 54 0
VCDI 0 23 5 67 579 2391 12245 29065
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 186 6 22 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 7 116 62 0 0 0
ODI 0 13 4 61 130 5 0 0
CDI 0 7 4 59 285 197 41 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 587 2251 13726 27953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 172 11 20 0 0 0 0
OW 0 55 4 93 35 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 69 218 1 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 92 189 35 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 89 387 305 63 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 391 2985 14743 25894
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 268 5 45 0 0 0 0
OW 0 59 13 65 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 19 14 123 65 2 0 0
ODI 0 12 3 79 183 33 0 0
CDI 0 17 4 96 360 280 71 18
VCDI 0 0 0 19 411 3509 17192 22899
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 263 9 64 0 0 0 0
OW 0 60 10 49 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 23 13 112 71 8 0 0
ODI 0 10 2 74 168 27 0 0
CDI 0 19 5 109 369 256 71 16
VCDI 0 0 0 19 410 3533 17192 22901

Date: 2018-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 318 2 11 0 0 0 0
OW 0 146 3 14 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 97 12 116 46 2 0 0
ODI 0 62 5 139 142 57 1 0
CDI 0 98 5 157 255 263 155 0
VCDI 0 17 6 138 602 4173 18500 20321
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 317 2 13 0 0 0 0
OW 0 121 8 18 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 114 6 124 63 6 0 0
ODI 0 66 6 131 125 53 8 0
CDI 0 106 7 143 270 261 160 0
VCDI 0 14 4 146 585 4175 18488 20321

Date: 2018-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 496 1 8 0 0 0 0
OW 0 145 15 53 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 5 256 124 8 0 0
ODI 0 41 2 77 303 70 13 0
CDI 0 64 12 72 449 452 115 12
VCDI 0 1 3 46 430 4076 18126 20356
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 319 1 1 0 0 0 0
OW 0 146 4 17 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 110 10 134 75 13 0 0
ODI 0 72 6 129 155 46 35 0
CDI 0 116 11 155 378 277 134 69
VCDI 0 19 6 76 698 4270 18085 20299

Date: 2018-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 546 7 83 0 0 0 0
OW 0 94 10 54 21 0 0 0
VODI 0 67 10 129 145 7 0 0
ODI 0 61 9 150 303 47 20 0
CDI 0 73 8 143 430 349 161 19
VCDI 0 9 4 76 719 4207 18536 19369
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 333 3 9 0 0 0 0
OW 0 174 7 78 37 0 0 0
VODI 0 119 9 141 130 15 0 0
ODI 0 73 17 133 205 44 52 2
CDI 0 123 7 165 463 363 186 85
VCDI 0 28 5 109 783 4188 18479 19301

Date: 2018-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 581 9 75 4 0 0 0
OW 0 131 12 41 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 86 17 256 123 6 0 0
ODI 0 123 10 165 286 53 12 0
CDI 0 87 20 196 435 315 235 2
VCDI 0 9 3 139 1072 3433 16284 21628
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 409 8 27 11 0 0 0
OW 0 181 7 119 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 151 16 198 84 10 1 0
ODI 0 135 13 157 162 62 51 3
CDI 0 107 17 215 431 331 293 53
VCDI 0 34 10 156 1222 3404 16186 21574


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