Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-10

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72213 14139 204 1464 751 126 3 0
OW 63 247 43 457 524 164 12 0
VODI 0 52 6 224 802 415 33 0
ODI 0 30 5 94 585 511 75 0
CDI 0 33 4 129 844 1570 369 75
VCDI 0 31 8 124 1033 6920 30814 51852
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72387 14585 185 1469 712 158 0 0
OW 62 297 39 396 511 160 10 0
VODI 0 61 12 297 837 353 23 0
ODI 0 33 4 98 618 433 106 0
CDI 0 28 9 122 843 1566 329 1
VCDI 0 4 1 132 1104 6879 32918 49266
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72921 14745 183 1224 512 75 0 0
OW 62 177 55 575 412 71 0 0
VODI 0 20 10 361 1078 149 0 0
ODI 0 8 3 157 1077 471 11 0
CDI 0 3 1 156 1373 2274 316 19
VCDI 0 0 0 50 853 6813 36126 44707
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74313 14047 163 987 444 47 0 0
OW 65 262 54 543 399 49 0 0
VODI 0 69 30 472 854 169 7 0
ODI 0 26 8 181 1008 486 43 0
CDI 0 26 6 234 1610 2000 410 22
VCDI 0 0 2 81 1101 6390 34859 45581
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74313 13999 163 1044 482 45 0 0
OW 65 283 48 453 343 55 0 0
VODI 0 93 35 478 822 158 3 0
ODI 0 27 8 182 1051 419 38 0
CDI 0 28 7 254 1577 1919 340 23
VCDI 0 0 2 87 1141 6545 34938 45580

Date: 2018-05-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74713 14110 162 1008 510 48 0 0
OW 63 385 46 446 406 83 3 0
VODI 0 156 29 543 678 159 32 0
ODI 0 82 8 279 873 299 77 0
CDI 0 112 10 305 1631 1486 525 13
VCDI 0 18 7 187 1382 7932 36306 41936
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74713 14116 164 1023 515 63 0 0
OW 63 322 50 482 346 58 0 0
VODI 0 195 21 512 747 142 28 0
ODI 0 95 9 256 884 271 80 0
CDI 0 120 13 261 1611 1387 495 38
VCDI 0 15 5 234 1377 8086 36340 41911

Date: 2018-05-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75058 14110 145 976 509 39 0 0
OW 62 327 62 627 430 15 0 0
VODI 0 47 16 763 1129 54 2 0
ODI 0 47 10 208 1845 477 23 0
CDI 0 64 12 145 1393 2336 257 21
VCDI 0 1 3 46 588 8065 36629 40507
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75057 13886 158 1131 714 58 1 0
OW 63 299 30 427 470 41 4 0
VODI 0 164 19 451 799 224 23 0
ODI 0 94 11 239 866 441 86 0
CDI 0 132 20 348 1572 1485 423 81
VCDI 0 21 10 169 1473 8737 36374 40447

Date: 2018-05-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75027 14540 182 1338 585 18 0 0
OW 61 194 39 624 637 30 2 0
VODI 0 89 22 449 1401 141 10 0
ODI 0 65 11 253 1375 580 93 0
CDI 0 73 8 230 1335 1380 448 19
VCDI 0 9 4 78 985 8428 37325 38960
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75026 14162 172 1224 881 49 5 0
OW 62 315 29 478 529 93 11 0
VODI 0 199 21 424 783 327 56 0
ODI 0 108 21 270 873 301 105 2
CDI 0 158 17 383 1760 1310 621 96
VCDI 0 28 6 193 1492 8497 37080 38881

Date: 2018-05-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75745 14074 175 1300 760 24 0 0
OW 61 277 59 709 640 32 0 0
VODI 0 152 34 841 1322 149 11 0
ODI 0 136 19 327 1047 434 98 0
CDI 0 87 20 438 1306 1297 586 2
VCDI 0 9 3 139 1673 7337 34511 41214
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 75745 13548 155 1180 1236 91 0 0
OW 61 433 41 418 519 107 7 0
VODI 0 286 40 599 694 202 46 0
ODI 0 236 22 409 760 321 141 4
CDI 0 177 38 761 1385 1392 793 66
VCDI 0 55 14 387 2154 7160 34219 41146


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