Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70184 15263 189 1330 780 103 0 0
OW 67 182 47 397 592 140 2 0
VODI 0 23 8 276 619 309 39 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 463 456 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 392 980 367 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 192 1574 7367 6635
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69798 15274 208 1560 1028 160 1 0
OW 63 180 35 257 591 198 12 0
VODI 0 26 9 206 573 393 48 0
ODI 0 0 0 38 463 378 77 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 421 1240 250 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 67 1992 7708 5838
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70592 14818 228 1493 808 140 2 0
OW 62 90 32 395 433 184 10 0
VODI 0 1 1 239 748 263 31 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 656 435 76 0
CDI 0 0 1 10 542 989 238 0
VCDI 0 2 1 36 139 3160 6445 5784
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71809 14159 197 1423 774 149 17 0
OW 64 100 39 407 393 161 29 0
VODI 0 2 0 192 720 386 29 0
ODI 0 0 1 37 465 464 83 0
CDI 0 4 1 30 448 1032 294 0
VCDI 0 8 3 41 195 2930 7363 4651
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71810 14137 208 1471 807 156 18 0
OW 63 123 28 386 396 158 24 0
VODI 0 1 0 168 655 312 29 0
ODI 0 0 1 32 468 481 83 0
CDI 0 4 1 33 459 914 306 0
VCDI 0 8 3 40 210 3101 7355 4651

Date: 2018-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72424 14219 187 1396 776 115 5 0
OW 64 110 30 371 532 159 12 0
VODI 0 19 3 175 704 395 31 0
ODI 0 15 2 28 498 402 77 0
CDI 0 15 4 49 560 1138 144 0
VCDI 0 3 2 74 396 3158 7493 3315
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72425 14143 192 1445 842 136 8 0
OW 63 184 22 327 503 129 12 0
VODI 0 20 6 172 638 356 26 0
ODI 0 15 1 26 502 430 70 0
CDI 0 14 5 41 566 1010 153 0
VCDI 0 5 2 82 415 3306 7493 3315

Date: 2018-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72531 14662 180 1183 528 96 13 0
OW 60 161 48 515 334 103 2 0
VODI 0 16 6 329 755 129 3 0
ODI 0 10 2 64 998 337 6 0
CDI 0 4 2 57 685 2064 100 0
VCDI 0 0 0 28 345 2039 7861 2844
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72529 14565 189 1426 778 204 14 0
OW 62 208 33 339 481 142 6 0
VODI 0 30 7 213 705 279 13 0
ODI 0 18 2 56 485 355 75 0
CDI 0 24 6 55 636 1091 181 0
VCDI 0 8 1 87 560 2697 7696 2844

Date: 2018-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73928 14004 145 996 446 72 0 0
OW 60 165 48 506 365 68 0 0
VODI 0 24 11 349 843 138 8 0
ODI 0 10 4 73 755 464 21 0
CDI 0 9 2 70 984 1658 267 0
VCDI 0 0 0 68 464 1527 6584 3964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73928 13856 148 1164 767 198 5 0
OW 60 224 36 341 435 158 17 0
VODI 0 71 12 259 535 273 37 0
ODI 0 36 7 99 516 304 66 0
CDI 0 20 5 67 711 861 281 0
VCDI 0 5 2 132 893 2133 6474 3964

Date: 2018-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74425 13815 164 929 663 2 0 0
OW 64 191 26 415 432 44 0 0
VODI 0 36 16 360 703 196 17 0
ODI 0 12 2 91 757 416 59 0
CDI 0 16 2 95 1178 1552 217 0
VCDI 0 4 2 62 482 1153 5809 4693
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74426 13707 160 1038 1035 140 19 0
OW 63 227 25 304 353 163 32 0
VODI 0 88 16 307 487 290 42 0
ODI 0 24 6 135 605 250 39 0
CDI 0 21 3 46 777 790 317 4
VCDI 0 7 2 122 958 1730 5653 4689


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