Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-05-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 13 2 14 0 0 0 0
OW 0 38 7 61 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 25 3 30 105 13 0 0
ODI 0 14 4 23 115 49 0 0
CDI 0 9 2 40 179 293 132 15
VCDI 0 5 2 43 425 1852 14118 28209
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 23 3 62 0 0 0 0
OW 0 47 3 64 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 10 46 63 10 0 0
ODI 0 26 5 51 84 106 1 0
CDI 0 31 4 65 224 423 43 25
VCDI 0 11 5 97 364 3033 15053 25826
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 8 78 0 0 0 0
OW 0 131 13 63 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 55 2 47 74 0 0 0
ODI 0 26 2 29 175 87 0 0
CDI 0 31 2 38 282 359 66 54
VCDI 0 24 3 75 453 2663 14457 26516
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 70 5 71 3 0 0 0
OW 0 102 10 66 26 0 0 0
VODI 0 40 4 34 79 0 0 0
ODI 0 29 2 40 108 37 0 0
CDI 0 24 1 44 225 294 97 9
VCDI 0 23 3 50 441 2478 14279 27172
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 85 9 80 4 0 0 0
OW 0 74 3 48 13 0 0 0
VODI 0 52 7 38 75 0 0 0
ODI 0 33 2 37 118 56 1 0
CDI 0 20 1 48 208 257 97 9
VCDI 0 24 3 54 464 2496 14278 27172

Date: 2018-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 118 8 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 94 17 90 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 54 6 79 46 0 0 0
ODI 0 20 2 43 114 14 0 0
CDI 0 17 2 71 263 203 50 5
VCDI 0 18 3 60 569 2018 11977 29896
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 124 14 15 0 0 0 0
OW 0 61 7 68 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 79 9 87 34 3 0 0
ODI 0 22 3 46 140 8 0 0
CDI 0 15 2 48 242 183 53 2
VCDI 0 20 3 86 573 2041 11974 29899

Date: 2018-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 110 3 3 0 0 0 0
OW 0 119 10 92 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 117 233 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 50 220 42 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 346 456 49 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 393 2794 11833 28953
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 116 2 2 0 0 0 0
OW 0 91 2 23 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 24 11 86 114 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 181 21 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 71 257 259 48 0
VCDI 0 0 0 52 641 3014 11831 28953

Date: 2018-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 241 11 18 0 0 0 0
OW 0 22 6 103 27 0 0 0
VODI 0 1 1 87 168 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 47 216 47 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 60 382 309 62 1
VCDI 0 0 0 1 356 4010 15668 24020
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 170 5 8 8 0 0 0
OW 0 59 1 27 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 12 73 137 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 87 156 69 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 98 237 266 79 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 577 4028 15642 24021

Date: 2018-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 319 2 19 0 0 0 0
OW 0 126 1 17 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 108 9 93 35 2 0 0
ODI 0 50 7 136 104 52 0 0
CDI 0 62 11 146 270 253 126 0
VCDI 0 4 1 96 519 3730 18089 21478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 222 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 135 0 8 1 1 0 0
VODI 0 171 8 123 14 25 0 0
ODI 0 69 13 137 106 61 16 0
CDI 0 47 6 132 224 198 176 0
VCDI 0 25 4 107 584 3752 18023 21478


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