Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-05-03

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70184 15276 191 1344 780 103 0 0
OW 67 220 54 458 618 140 2 0
VODI 0 48 11 306 725 322 39 0
ODI 0 14 4 90 584 515 68 0
CDI 0 9 2 42 596 1385 608 20
VCDI 0 5 2 43 703 4340 29972 57158
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69798 15297 211 1622 1028 160 1 0
OW 63 227 38 321 614 198 12 0
VODI 0 61 19 252 637 403 48 0
ODI 0 26 5 89 549 503 80 0
CDI 0 31 4 67 649 1772 375 28
VCDI 0 11 5 103 544 5993 32734 52470
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-01:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70592 14864 236 1571 808 140 2 0
OW 62 221 45 458 440 184 10 0
VODI 0 56 3 286 836 265 31 0
ODI 0 26 2 46 865 534 89 0
CDI 0 31 3 56 917 1461 399 54
VCDI 0 26 4 127 976 6833 30852 52637
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-05-03:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71809 14229 202 1494 777 149 17 0
OW 64 202 49 473 419 161 29 0
VODI 0 42 4 226 801 386 29 0
ODI 0 29 3 79 612 543 100 53
CDI 0 28 2 93 748 1470 499 111
VCDI 0 31 6 152 790 6862 34129 49146
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71810 14222 217 1551 811 156 18 0
OW 63 197 31 434 409 158 24 0
VODI 0 53 7 206 732 312 29 0
ODI 0 33 3 71 620 578 96 47
CDI 0 24 2 96 743 1307 510 120
VCDI 0 32 6 159 832 7060 34126 49143

Date: 2018-05-05:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72424 14337 195 1403 776 115 5 0
OW 64 204 47 461 534 159 12 0
VODI 0 73 9 255 759 395 31 0
ODI 0 35 4 75 641 442 84 0
CDI 0 32 6 133 869 1499 331 5
VCDI 0 21 5 139 1061 6614 31690 51104
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72425 14267 206 1460 842 136 8 0
OW 63 245 29 395 508 129 12 0
VODI 0 99 15 260 679 360 26 0
ODI 0 37 4 75 669 467 72 0
CDI 0 29 7 98 855 1360 333 2
VCDI 0 25 5 178 1087 6772 31702 51107

Date: 2018-05-07:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72531 14772 183 1186 528 96 13 0
OW 60 280 58 607 339 103 2 0
VODI 0 18 8 450 992 131 3 0
ODI 0 10 2 118 1237 387 10 0
CDI 0 4 2 93 1118 2628 199 16
VCDI 0 0 0 28 771 6815 32133 49117
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72529 14681 191 1428 778 204 14 0
OW 62 299 35 362 485 142 6 0
VODI 0 54 18 299 822 279 13 0
ODI 0 18 2 122 670 382 84 0
CDI 0 24 6 132 924 1449 339 42
VCDI 0 8 1 139 1306 7704 31904 49091

Date: 2018-05-09:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73928 14245 157 1014 446 72 0 0
OW 60 187 54 612 392 68 0 0
VODI 0 25 12 452 1014 140 9 0
ODI 0 10 4 159 996 511 34 0
CDI 0 9 2 146 1507 2057 413 22
VCDI 0 0 0 69 984 7170 33767 46301
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 73928 14026 154 1172 775 198 5 0
OW 60 283 37 370 469 158 17 0
VODI 0 106 24 339 672 278 42 0
ODI 0 36 7 197 677 379 101 0
CDI 0 20 5 201 982 1252 482 88
VCDI 0 5 2 173 1764 7753 33576 46235

Date: 2018-05-11:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74425 14137 166 948 663 2 0 0
OW 64 322 29 433 433 44 0 0
VODI 0 153 28 461 738 198 17 0
ODI 0 64 13 253 870 470 65 0
CDI 0 78 13 281 1606 1933 438 28
VCDI 0 8 3 158 1101 6241 35828 44336
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 74426 13931 160 1038 1035 140 19 0
OW 63 367 25 312 354 164 32 0
VODI 0 263 26 436 501 317 44 0
ODI 0 99 23 284 713 313 88 1
CDI 0 70 12 211 1022 1107 702 54
VCDI 0 32 6 253 1786 6847 35463 44309


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