Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-04-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 40 96 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 36 87 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 29 139 52 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 35 255 222 94 36
VCDI 0 0 0 12 380 1595 12199 30537
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 5 33 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 16 228 49 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 175 58 51 1
CDI 0 0 0 17 217 289 205 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 431 1700 10904 31468
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 3 9 3 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 32 160 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 16 204 41 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 238 277 148 55
VCDI 0 0 0 0 459 2350 12831 29024
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 8 1 7 0 0 0 0
OW 0 17 4 59 23 0 0 0
VODI 0 10 5 34 117 9 0 0
ODI 0 7 2 25 111 53 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 29 203 357 121 73
VCDI 0 0 0 23 458 2215 14636 27255
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 9 3 14 10 0 0 0
OW 0 7 1 40 40 0 0 0
VODI 0 12 1 26 57 25 0 0
ODI 0 7 5 22 93 56 5 0
CDI 0 7 2 28 178 326 115 62
VCDI 0 0 0 47 534 2227 14641 27266

Date: 2018-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 20 3 40 0 0 0 0
OW 0 39 3 62 34 0 0 0
VODI 0 26 4 51 56 8 0 0
ODI 0 15 5 45 126 31 0 0
CDI 0 11 1 64 194 320 56 22
VCDI 0 4 2 38 408 2418 15646 26114
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 24 3 67 7 0 0 0
OW 0 29 3 21 28 0 0 0
VODI 0 16 0 43 60 5 0 0
ODI 0 20 6 44 79 47 0 0
CDI 0 8 3 61 182 323 57 41
VCDI 0 18 3 64 462 2402 15645 26095

Date: 2018-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 33 3 73 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 15 78 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 77 3 77 72 0 0 0
ODI 0 31 1 23 202 67 0 0
CDI 0 32 2 43 298 367 80 49
VCDI 0 17 2 72 321 2093 14788 26831
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 38 4 80 0 0 0 0
OW 0 39 4 39 1 0 0 0
VODI 0 35 3 56 50 0 1 0
ODI 0 42 7 40 119 79 30 36
CDI 0 56 5 59 227 357 130 150
VCDI 0 96 3 92 496 2091 14707 26694

Date: 2018-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 56 7 75 1 0 0 0
OW 0 118 6 74 9 0 0 0
VODI 0 41 5 32 80 1 0 0
ODI 0 25 2 38 121 59 0 0
CDI 0 28 2 20 241 299 80 37
VCDI 0 20 3 61 441 2650 14143 27091
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 46 8 80 1 0 0 0
OW 0 28 1 49 2 0 0 0
VODI 0 33 5 37 70 12 0 0
ODI 0 35 2 20 111 174 23 0
CDI 0 55 3 16 230 451 177 36
VCDI 0 91 6 98 479 2372 14023 27092

Date: 2018-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 66 10 72 0 0 0 0
OW 0 116 10 74 8 0 0 0
VODI 0 48 4 43 67 0 0 0
ODI 0 27 4 37 117 23 0 0
CDI 0 23 2 73 257 356 54 0
VCDI 0 23 5 67 579 2391 12245 29065
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 53 14 86 0 0 0 0
OW 0 30 4 40 4 0 0 0
VODI 0 42 6 44 50 0 6 8
ODI 0 40 1 43 106 33 27 19
CDI 0 49 1 39 288 358 98 119
VCDI 0 89 9 114 580 2379 12168 28919


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