Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-26

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70342 15106 199 995 680 136 1 0
OW 69 420 44 464 589 182 3 0
VODI 7 170 17 323 732 277 42 0
ODI 1 5 1 130 699 347 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 787 1099 354 37
VCDI 0 0 0 27 763 4864 29708 57306
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71043 14487 178 988 787 202 4 0
OW 65 415 51 416 476 177 10 0
VODI 5 158 20 259 827 340 50 0
ODI 0 5 0 104 615 466 107 1
CDI 0 0 0 28 770 1413 697 3
VCDI 0 0 0 3 712 4062 29715 57389
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71407 14231 178 1036 690 112 0 0
OW 62 187 48 553 429 86 0 0
VODI 0 25 7 369 880 218 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 790 530 81 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 798 1459 434 57
VCDI 0 0 0 0 681 5447 30288 55898
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71146 14336 171 1314 695 83 0 0
OW 61 183 53 513 597 120 1 0
VODI 0 36 12 289 764 315 43 0
ODI 0 7 2 79 617 507 60 0
CDI 0 0 0 31 587 1506 511 91
VCDI 0 0 0 23 622 4669 31621 55383
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71129 14094 170 1385 1083 188 9 0
OW 74 298 47 400 522 194 23 0
VODI 4 135 10 267 509 346 42 0
ODI 0 28 9 104 429 440 76 0
CDI 0 7 2 46 568 1216 488 78
VCDI 0 0 0 47 771 4816 31598 55396

Date: 2018-04-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69764 15394 202 1483 1015 122 0 0
OW 64 224 42 377 634 161 13 0
VODI 0 51 11 251 667 371 65 0
ODI 0 15 5 83 591 447 82 0
CDI 0 11 1 64 603 1472 597 22
VCDI 0 4 2 44 572 5606 32898 53018
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69748 15245 210 1551 1391 247 21 0
OW 73 257 27 267 452 237 35 0
VODI 7 117 12 236 518 324 48 0
ODI 0 54 8 108 432 428 105 0
CDI 0 8 3 71 593 1327 628 41
VCDI 0 18 3 69 696 5616 32818 52999

Date: 2018-04-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70551 14767 214 1487 750 83 0 0
OW 63 207 54 564 415 133 2 0
VODI 0 81 5 345 843 215 15 0
ODI 0 31 1 35 1012 504 43 0
CDI 0 32 2 49 752 1967 281 49
VCDI 0 17 2 88 491 4952 31805 54141
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70532 14581 215 1750 1312 279 1 0
OW 80 215 32 280 426 274 12 0
VODI 2 128 15 249 502 320 54 0
ODI 0 59 8 95 542 423 149 36
CDI 0 56 5 80 668 1309 484 155
VCDI 0 96 3 114 813 5249 31446 53999

Date: 2018-05-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70740 14807 243 1678 853 154 3 0
OW 63 187 32 459 457 171 14 0
VODI 0 43 5 203 832 341 22 0
ODI 0 25 2 52 721 550 101 0
CDI 0 28 2 62 814 1357 431 140
VCDI 0 27 5 170 840 6391 33853 50170
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70731 14573 232 1749 1354 418 41 0
OW 72 221 23 246 353 272 40 0
VODI 0 121 20 221 420 350 68 0
ODI 0 49 3 109 519 506 139 0
CDI 0 55 3 74 835 1268 542 38
VCDI 0 98 8 225 1036 6150 33594 50272

Date: 2018-05-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72213 14139 204 1464 751 126 3 0
OW 63 247 43 457 524 164 12 0
VODI 0 52 6 224 802 415 33 0
ODI 0 30 5 94 585 511 75 0
CDI 0 33 4 129 844 1570 369 75
VCDI 0 31 8 124 1033 6920 30814 51852
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 72210 13792 196 1607 1323 386 52 0
OW 66 302 18 144 308 246 9 0
VODI 0 221 26 203 339 331 84 8
ODI 0 66 17 214 460 369 97 19
CDI 0 58 2 164 940 1451 389 119
VCDI 0 93 11 160 1169 6923 30675 51781


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