Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-04-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68563 16237 213 1048 489 68 11 0
OW 52 297 54 510 502 102 19 0
VODI 0 79 26 318 755 245 35 0
ODI 0 7 5 96 610 426 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 440 1034 250 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 175 1961 8116 6242
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69169 15922 194 987 598 61 0 0
OW 56 298 64 525 430 141 6 0
VODI 3 51 24 345 713 216 37 0
ODI 0 0 0 95 584 314 44 0
CDI 0 0 0 19 476 1038 183 8
VCDI 0 0 0 0 208 2272 7948 6071
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69947 15373 178 840 308 31 0 0
OW 69 448 72 654 449 54 0 0
VODI 0 58 23 400 854 154 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 40 798 369 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 453 1252 120 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 170 2319 8176 5479
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70309 15087 189 988 553 95 3 0
OW 62 459 64 496 482 161 2 0
VODI 0 162 14 261 690 262 11 0
ODI 0 2 3 82 610 316 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 513 715 128 0
VCDI 0 0 0 8 336 3103 7741 5150
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70309 15089 193 957 532 104 4 0
OW 62 419 57 514 475 151 1 0
VODI 0 192 18 265 668 217 11 0
ODI 0 10 2 88 599 318 27 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 541 685 103 0
VCDI 0 0 0 7 369 3177 7772 5150

Date: 2018-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70476 15090 194 996 670 160 6 0
OW 65 389 40 426 480 178 6 0
VODI 5 183 14 243 620 287 52 0
ODI 1 3 0 84 459 343 49 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 454 944 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 17 280 1982 8364 5344
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70474 15063 190 968 695 167 6 0
OW 67 383 44 452 428 171 8 0
VODI 4 210 13 244 601 254 48 0
ODI 2 9 1 86 479 337 45 0
CDI 0 0 0 23 470 877 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 16 290 2088 8401 5344

Date: 2018-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71595 14063 164 957 568 91 2 0
OW 61 324 63 497 417 95 0 0
VODI 0 10 10 380 692 220 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 37 684 470 41 0
CDI 0 0 0 9 453 1357 297 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 95 1495 8297 5655
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71585 13847 184 1137 839 164 2 0
OW 65 364 36 404 483 178 15 0
VODI 6 176 12 214 526 344 40 0
ODI 0 10 5 84 418 411 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 41 462 1106 377 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 181 1525 8165 5655

Date: 2018-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71315 14250 171 1147 672 125 0 0
OW 61 184 49 469 507 104 0 0
VODI 0 34 11 292 670 275 30 0
ODI 0 0 0 61 508 445 76 0
CDI 0 0 0 3 454 972 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 139 1575 8292 5946
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71299 13969 192 1323 1045 235 6 0
OW 72 271 25 377 514 194 21 0
VODI 5 183 2 152 452 317 62 0
ODI 0 43 9 65 370 388 85 0
CDI 0 2 3 51 359 814 289 0
VCDI 0 0 0 4 210 1548 8198 5946

Date: 2018-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70184 15263 189 1330 780 103 0 0
OW 67 182 47 397 592 140 2 0
VODI 0 23 8 276 619 309 39 0
ODI 0 0 0 67 463 456 55 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 392 980 367 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 192 1574 7367 6635
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70177 15049 212 1542 1097 216 16 0
OW 72 228 17 250 513 234 24 0
VODI 2 140 6 154 479 289 61 0
ODI 0 51 9 61 311 401 93 0
CDI 0 0 0 64 378 1111 482 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 260 1311 7154 6635


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