Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-19

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-13:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68563 16238 213 1048 489 68 11 0
OW 52 297 54 512 507 102 19 0
VODI 0 79 26 325 768 245 35 0
ODI 0 7 5 100 666 436 87 0
CDI 0 0 0 34 541 1211 382 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 294 4265 27098 62229
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-15:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69169 15922 194 987 598 61 0 0
OW 56 298 64 526 433 141 6 0
VODI 3 51 24 347 735 216 37 0
ODI 0 0 0 98 650 361 65 6
CDI 0 0 0 19 608 1325 326 52
VCDI 0 0 0 0 360 4516 25050 63744
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-17:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69947 15373 178 841 308 31 0 0
OW 69 448 72 670 489 57 0 0
VODI 0 58 23 439 951 176 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 51 961 450 40 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 650 1766 337 58
VCDI 0 0 0 0 334 4812 29510 57940
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-19:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70309 15087 189 993 559 95 3 0
OW 62 459 64 534 549 184 2 0
VODI 0 162 14 290 750 302 11 0
ODI 0 2 3 103 779 401 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 47 801 1006 334 80
VCDI 0 0 0 15 691 5911 31248 54971
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70309 15089 193 965 552 106 4 0
OW 62 419 57 548 516 163 1 0
VODI 0 192 18 296 749 264 11 0
ODI 0 10 2 112 784 402 37 0
CDI 0 0 0 43 816 972 319 72
VCDI 0 0 0 18 712 5992 31264 54979

Date: 2018-04-21:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70476 15090 194 996 670 160 6 0
OW 65 389 40 456 503 178 6 0
VODI 5 183 14 320 809 298 52 0
ODI 1 3 0 150 618 394 66 0
CDI 0 0 0 50 734 1211 433 57
VCDI 0 0 0 29 741 4156 28931 58564
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70474 15063 190 968 695 167 6 0
OW 67 383 44 486 456 171 8 0
VODI 4 210 13 321 784 262 48 0
ODI 2 9 1 147 660 388 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 49 758 1121 400 56
VCDI 0 0 0 30 722 4288 28967 58565

Date: 2018-04-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71595 14063 164 957 568 91 2 0
OW 61 324 63 499 432 95 0 0
VODI 0 10 10 415 845 228 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 53 985 606 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 806 1897 554 23
VCDI 0 0 0 1 685 4526 30385 56000
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71585 13847 184 1137 839 164 2 0
OW 65 364 36 419 549 181 15 0
VODI 6 176 12 218 648 398 40 0
ODI 0 10 5 99 573 510 63 0
CDI 0 0 0 69 740 1570 681 62
VCDI 0 0 0 3 972 4620 30225 55961

Date: 2018-04-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71315 14250 172 1149 672 125 0 0
OW 61 190 51 506 525 104 0 0
VODI 0 34 11 366 805 276 30 0
ODI 0 0 0 88 674 511 86 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 703 1324 468 38
VCDI 0 0 0 2 577 5131 30214 56570
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 71299 13971 193 1337 1046 235 6 0
OW 72 275 27 430 536 194 21 0
VODI 5 183 2 182 555 327 62 0
ODI 0 43 9 93 508 442 95 0
CDI 0 2 3 66 540 1089 444 180
VCDI 0 0 0 23 771 5184 30170 56428

Date: 2018-04-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70184 15276 191 1344 780 103 0 0
OW 67 220 54 458 618 140 2 0
VODI 0 48 11 306 725 322 39 0
ODI 0 14 4 90 584 515 68 0
CDI 0 9 2 42 596 1385 608 20
VCDI 0 5 2 43 703 4340 29972 57158
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70177 15064 213 1556 1110 216 16 0
OW 72 235 22 270 539 241 24 0
VODI 2 150 6 183 561 329 61 0
ODI 0 64 10 89 404 498 125 0
CDI 0 21 3 82 523 1412 789 150
VCDI 0 38 10 103 869 4109 29674 57028


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