Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-04-12

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68397 16478 202 911 443 46 0 0
OW 51 360 52 545 379 70 7 0
VODI 0 78 25 333 695 185 18 0
ODI 0 6 5 113 605 474 64 0
CDI 0 0 1 25 557 1008 364 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 360 3655 27120 63397
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-08:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68347 16190 215 1059 426 29 0 0
OW 51 418 48 464 485 61 1 0
VODI 0 117 36 280 797 209 15 0
ODI 0 7 4 167 662 554 53 0
CDI 0 0 0 82 524 1157 324 25
VCDI 0 0 0 10 494 3862 27126 62749
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-10:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68465 16382 205 981 276 14 0 0
OW 51 381 66 643 396 48 0 0
VODI 0 90 23 392 830 144 4 0
ODI 0 5 2 72 707 500 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 563 1572 378 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 217 3780 26688 63122
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-04-12:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67991 16617 232 1114 497 59 3 0
OW 51 315 45 505 531 112 10 0
VODI 0 73 24 333 708 288 39 0
ODI 0 5 2 71 554 547 85 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 505 1495 372 42
VCDI 0 0 0 0 234 4057 27567 61955
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 67991 16697 232 1166 515 58 3 0
OW 51 242 48 466 487 106 8 0
VODI 0 66 23 316 743 278 38 0
ODI 0 5 0 78 558 551 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 493 1438 315 50
VCDI 0 0 0 0 233 4127 27633 61947

Date: 2018-04-14:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68753 16238 192 1026 529 49 0 0
OW 52 288 58 547 454 108 1 0
VODI 0 61 21 344 788 204 30 0
ODI 0 4 3 103 705 327 75 0
CDI 0 0 2 28 572 1218 324 29
VCDI 0 0 0 5 288 4672 27065 61885
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68753 16220 189 1052 522 49 0 0
OW 52 297 61 514 423 109 1 0
VODI 0 68 23 347 820 203 26 0
ODI 0 6 1 106 707 366 75 0
CDI 0 0 2 29 546 1134 289 24
VCDI 0 0 0 5 318 4717 27104 61890

Date: 2018-04-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69461 15439 166 749 344 23 0 0
OW 54 501 77 624 368 52 0 0
VODI 3 124 35 560 1106 170 2 0
ODI 0 0 0 34 996 510 54 1
CDI 0 0 0 0 555 2124 357 126
VCDI 0 0 0 0 225 4396 28828 58984
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69448 15697 200 1067 604 100 1 0
OW 66 277 55 444 454 110 14 0
VODI 4 89 20 345 772 223 33 0
ODI 0 1 3 99 641 462 59 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 627 1332 243 56
VCDI 0 0 0 0 496 5048 28891 59055

Date: 2018-04-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70070 15261 167 987 467 44 0 0
OW 63 437 71 555 605 130 0 0
VODI 0 64 16 342 769 282 2 0
ODI 0 2 0 73 808 467 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 38 829 1193 291 52
VCDI 0 0 0 8 609 5628 29655 57034
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70070 15286 181 1165 742 155 0 0
OW 63 323 37 287 489 171 11 0
VODI 0 145 28 252 552 325 21 0
ODI 0 9 8 169 537 350 33 5
CDI 0 1 0 104 787 827 279 74
VCDI 0 0 0 26 980 5916 29633 57007

Date: 2018-04-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70342 15106 199 995 680 136 1 0
OW 69 420 44 464 589 182 3 0
VODI 7 170 17 323 732 277 42 0
ODI 1 5 1 130 699 347 69 0
CDI 0 0 0 53 787 1099 354 37
VCDI 0 0 0 27 763 4864 29708 57306
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 70348 15113 188 999 789 274 12 0
OW 70 389 29 311 441 134 27 0
VODI 1 158 31 233 479 193 43 0
ODI 0 36 9 182 472 342 55 21
CDI 0 5 4 189 718 716 418 147
VCDI 0 0 0 78 1351 5246 29622 57175


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