Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables

Validation of sea ice concentration - GODAE regions

Bulletin date: 2018-03-29

Model: ARC MFC - TOPAZ

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-04-02

Best estimate

Forecast

Arctic Deep Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 314 19 106 40 16 0 0
OW 0 12 3 27 36 13 0 0
VODI 0 2 2 9 61 17 6 0
ODI 0 0 0 2 49 28 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 32 63 30 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 7 186 4005 31804
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 315 20 101 46 23 0 0
OW 0 12 1 29 28 16 4 0
VODI 0 1 3 11 53 25 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 50 20 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 36 39 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 19 203 3981 31804

Queen Elisabeth Islands:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 281 2845
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 7 281 2845

Beaufort Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9977
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9982

Chuckchi Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 9 14 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 22 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 49 54 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 73 1744 3614
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 6 25 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 10 44 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 6 12 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 28 21 44 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 9 109 1700 3614

Siberian Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 268 6964
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 268 6968

Laptev Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 39 47 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 230 2442 2567
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 6 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 42 51 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 222 2433 2565

Kara Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 6 7 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 9 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 8 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 25 30 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 74 3792 2374
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 4 12 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 1 11 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 0 27 37 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 72 3777 2374

Barents Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2821 3621 60 298 143 17 0 0
OW 0 28 9 78 122 48 0 0
VODI 0 12 9 46 163 67 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 23 135 86 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 159 199 43 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 75 564 2276 212
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 2821 3573 52 288 169 38 0 0
OW 0 55 9 57 111 46 0 0
VODI 0 28 12 51 133 81 5 0
ODI 0 5 5 45 101 83 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 12 171 165 62 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 112 568 2245 212

Greenland Basin:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5013 3734 18 75 6 0 0 0
OW 0 94 12 101 18 0 0 0
VODI 0 20 7 101 93 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 2 25 130 26 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 5 99 113 3 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 36 313 1544 102
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 5013 3713 19 91 11 0 0 0
OW 0 105 8 83 25 1 0 0
VODI 0 28 8 85 79 6 0 0
ODI 0 2 4 37 111 33 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 114 96 6 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 42 322 1541 102

Southeast Greenland:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8682 3236 33 107 80 13 0 0
OW 0 91 29 74 43 14 0 0
VODI 0 1 3 98 101 18 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 3 105 54 1 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 24 110 67 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 8682 3231 46 161 128 36 1 0
OW 0 92 11 66 85 24 13 0
VODI 0 5 8 44 86 46 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 12 25 65 18 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 38 2 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Baffin Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 12 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 3 3 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 29 24 9 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 39 182 2041 3439
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 2 7 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 1 13 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 4 6 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 16 14 12 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 189 2041 3439

Hudson Bay:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 14 12 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 375 3027 5152
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 18 18 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 0 371 3021 5152

Labrador Sea:

observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10391 5089 67 281 179 22 0 0
OW 0 259 21 282 171 41 1 0
VODI 0 4 6 123 301 166 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 6 220 297 16 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 101 316 96 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 41 516 1185 1
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 10391 5329 85 541 408 83 2 0
OW 0 18 7 101 206 119 10 0
VODI 0 5 2 50 189 317 34 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 79 106 52 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 75 174 69 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 56 559 1141 1


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