Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69739 15809 143 584 393 190 0 0
OW 59 519 90 428 309 134 0 0
VODI 5 140 47 459 603 312 0 0
ODI 2 16 8 230 486 382 53 0
CDI 0 5 1 72 530 579 102 0
VCDI 0 1 0 30 539 3605 6320 6176
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69745 15464 140 616 391 261 0 0
OW 53 608 51 410 237 114 11 0
VODI 0 193 57 464 507 300 37 0
ODI 0 19 22 250 536 290 123 0
CDI 0 0 1 103 526 432 179 0
VCDI 0 0 0 46 726 3018 6508 6662
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69102 15850 173 888 510 183 2 0
OW 52 316 67 511 457 111 10 0
VODI 0 58 34 344 762 267 23 0
ODI 0 3 0 83 719 412 68 0
CDI 0 0 0 4 461 805 292 0
VCDI 0 0 0 15 230 1988 7195 7105
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68835 15769 212 1213 655 202 1 0
OW 51 245 52 393 595 155 17 0
VODI 0 50 25 242 802 330 54 0
ODI 0 5 4 75 449 407 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 390 675 229 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 163 1829 7827 7047
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68835 15795 223 1262 670 205 3 0
OW 51 217 39 348 593 147 15 0
VODI 0 52 27 235 767 328 53 0
ODI 0 5 4 80 468 383 65 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 398 717 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 158 1818 7901 7047

Date: 2018-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69122 15441 215 1238 803 178 0 0
OW 51 263 44 345 608 201 17 0
VODI 0 57 25 235 615 377 53 0
ODI 0 8 5 87 369 347 64 0
CDI 0 2 0 26 475 593 198 0
VCDI 0 0 0 6 248 1571 8136 7077
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69122 15509 224 1281 816 177 4 0
OW 51 204 35 309 588 198 16 0
VODI 0 51 27 225 621 348 53 0
ODI 0 5 3 95 378 350 46 0
CDI 0 2 0 24 459 519 173 0
VCDI 0 0 0 3 256 1675 8176 7077

Date: 2018-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68646 16048 197 868 429 59 0 0
OW 51 493 74 564 388 90 1 0
VODI 0 39 27 378 706 255 16 0
ODI 0 0 2 59 627 475 39 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 382 765 228 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 155 1397 8438 7190
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68646 16215 222 1183 746 160 3 0
OW 51 291 36 338 452 188 27 0
VODI 0 67 33 242 534 453 82 0
ODI 0 7 9 97 348 296 103 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 377 477 166 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 230 1467 8341 7190

Date: 2018-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69644 15438 178 941 353 13 0 0
OW 51 276 69 535 448 33 0 0
VODI 0 53 21 312 678 172 1 0
ODI 0 4 6 99 547 475 21 0
CDI 0 1 1 30 480 713 185 0
VCDI 0 0 0 2 328 1959 8011 7022
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69644 15301 197 1151 728 85 1 0
OW 51 313 27 303 493 172 7 0
VODI 0 122 34 243 477 394 40 0
ODI 0 32 10 140 353 420 70 0
CDI 0 4 7 71 395 452 145 0
VCDI 0 0 0 11 388 1842 7955 7022

Date: 2018-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68397 16478 202 910 441 36 0 0
OW 51 360 52 545 379 49 0 0
VODI 0 78 25 331 693 156 4 0
ODI 0 6 5 112 585 445 42 0
CDI 0 0 1 25 436 762 178 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 270 1486 8290 7270
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68397 16304 205 1134 920 168 4 0
OW 51 375 30 266 356 244 14 0
VODI 0 189 29 238 400 360 58 0
ODI 0 41 12 162 300 266 108 0
CDI 0 13 9 96 382 413 173 1
VCDI 0 0 0 27 446 1483 8157 7269


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