Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 16 35 10 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 1 35 10 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 22 109 60 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 65 849 8720 35927
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 18 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 12 72 1 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 13 171 38 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 8 346 163 5
VCDI 0 0 0 0 70 1305 12864 30780
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 140 20 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 27 335 183 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 61 1063 10762 33261
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 68 4 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 1 296 115 20
VCDI 0 0 0 0 13 1379 10342 33620
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 81 14 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 322 112 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 11 1339 10335 33621

Date: 2018-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 62 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 25 37 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 47 182 66 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 1237 8120 36014
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 63 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 30 31 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 249 114 2
VCDI 0 0 0 0 58 1166 8072 36012

Date: 2018-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 9 14 8 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 23 23 33 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 42 98 70 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 43 799 6221 38472
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 6 25 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 10 44 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 12 26 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 60 71 69 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 48 835 6168 38477

Date: 2018-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 2 44 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 2 30 245 33 13
VCDI 0 0 0 0 60 1540 8587 35308
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 31 4 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 14 55 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 1 22 161 36 28
VCDI 0 0 0 1 55 1584 8567 35293

Date: 2018-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 17 3 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 80 175 60 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 90 1787 10761 32882
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 33 1 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 75 83 19 87
VCDI 0 0 0 0 79 1881 10802 32806


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