Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-03-29

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-23:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69739 15831 147 619 428 192 0 0
OW 59 519 92 449 340 148 0 0
VODI 5 140 47 475 655 361 10 0
ODI 2 16 8 233 513 437 63 0
CDI 0 5 1 72 576 747 222 4
VCDI 0 1 0 30 614 5399 25823 62026
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-25:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69745 15498 145 649 416 261 0 0
OW 53 613 51 434 258 132 11 0
VODI 0 200 57 494 546 372 38 0
ODI 0 20 22 272 570 469 161 0
CDI 0 0 2 131 556 797 376 12
VCDI 0 0 0 49 825 4562 25844 62407
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-27:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69102 15858 177 931 551 187 2 0
OW 52 316 67 529 485 120 10 0
VODI 0 58 34 358 789 284 23 0
ODI 0 3 0 90 742 570 88 0
CDI 0 0 0 6 509 1172 480 39
VCDI 0 0 0 15 292 3181 20975 68953
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-29:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68835 15769 212 1237 692 225 1 0
OW 51 245 52 402 618 176 17 0
VODI 0 50 25 242 830 361 54 0
ODI 0 5 4 75 471 503 88 0
CDI 0 0 0 20 425 997 382 36
VCDI 0 0 0 0 177 3260 22095 68416
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68835 15795 223 1285 709 228 3 0
OW 51 217 39 357 610 166 15 0
VODI 0 52 27 236 800 360 53 0
ODI 0 5 4 80 492 492 79 0
CDI 0 0 0 18 433 1066 320 39
VCDI 0 0 0 0 169 3210 22167 68413

Date: 2018-03-31:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69122 15441 215 1240 847 198 0 0
OW 51 263 44 346 629 227 17 0
VODI 0 57 25 235 641 473 54 0
ODI 0 8 5 87 414 410 66 0
CDI 0 2 0 26 553 806 292 11
VCDI 0 0 0 6 330 2853 20376 70678
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69122 15509 224 1283 855 197 4 0
OW 51 204 35 310 612 231 16 0
VODI 0 51 27 225 651 440 53 0
ODI 0 5 3 95 430 408 48 0
CDI 0 2 0 24 549 796 309 24
VCDI 0 0 0 3 317 2895 20375 70665

Date: 2018-04-02:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68646 16048 197 869 448 68 0 0
OW 51 493 74 564 398 123 8 0
VODI 0 39 27 378 740 293 33 0
ODI 0 0 2 59 676 518 82 0
CDI 0 0 0 14 456 952 391 27
VCDI 0 0 0 0 198 2520 22605 69051
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68646 16215 222 1184 767 182 4 0
OW 51 291 36 338 462 219 60 0
VODI 0 67 33 242 553 489 139 0
ODI 0 7 9 97 376 331 147 0
CDI 0 0 0 22 463 631 340 20
VCDI 0 0 0 1 295 2622 22429 69058

Date: 2018-04-04:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69644 15438 178 942 364 13 0 0
OW 51 276 69 537 466 45 0 0
VODI 0 53 21 315 698 205 1 0
ODI 0 4 6 102 568 548 24 0
CDI 0 1 1 36 558 1019 239 52
VCDI 0 0 0 2 400 3925 24988 65259
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69644 15301 197 1152 743 91 1 0
OW 51 313 27 303 514 193 7 0
VODI 0 122 34 245 501 453 46 0
ODI 0 32 10 143 387 495 87 1
CDI 0 4 7 76 441 681 208 50
VCDI 0 0 0 15 468 3842 24903 65260

Date: 2018-04-06:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68397 16478 202 911 443 46 0 0
OW 51 360 52 545 379 70 7 0
VODI 0 78 25 333 695 185 18 0
ODI 0 6 5 113 605 474 64 0
CDI 0 0 1 25 557 1008 364 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 360 3655 27120 63397
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68397 16304 205 1135 922 182 5 0
OW 51 375 30 266 356 268 26 0
VODI 0 189 29 240 400 388 79 0
ODI 0 41 12 163 337 288 129 0
CDI 0 13 9 96 467 554 313 98
VCDI 0 0 0 27 557 3758 27021 63318


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