Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
European sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - European sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68733 16046 172 829 387 107 0 0
OW 52 454 74 496 368 136 2 0
VODI 0 132 34 348 645 245 36 0
ODI 0 22 10 152 551 354 94 0
CDI 0 4 2 67 467 739 298 0
VCDI 0 0 0 13 318 2991 7765 5957
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68873 16748 169 736 328 28 0 0
OW 51 483 89 502 369 100 0 0
VODI 0 219 31 437 549 212 1 0
ODI 0 84 11 213 487 305 15 0
CDI 0 57 8 167 573 613 178 0
VCDI 0 35 5 133 1059 4729 5557 4946
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69000 16767 151 654 362 117 0 0
OW 51 577 87 550 295 79 0 0
VODI 0 177 41 496 715 200 0 0
ODI 0 47 12 172 608 330 5 0
CDI 0 30 9 93 545 744 33 0
VCDI 0 5 2 39 538 3791 6474 5304
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69615 15979 143 592 366 165 0 0
OW 58 562 87 519 283 133 0 0
VODI 5 117 35 589 617 213 0 0
ODI 2 16 12 194 551 351 17 0
CDI 0 4 2 72 570 701 76 0
VCDI 0 0 0 23 496 3653 6747 5535
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69614 16017 144 651 414 181 0 0
OW 59 524 84 475 299 120 0 0
VODI 5 119 37 573 589 224 2 0
ODI 2 15 12 192 513 315 16 0
CDI 0 3 2 79 556 706 70 0
VCDI 0 0 0 19 512 3670 6752 5535

Date: 2018-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69990 15555 132 546 379 209 0 0
OW 51 588 75 386 265 129 0 0
VODI 0 218 68 464 503 299 2 0
ODI 0 20 11 261 492 300 69 0
CDI 0 3 0 138 546 405 112 0
VCDI 0 2 3 50 716 3605 6211 6297
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69990 15543 138 582 395 197 0 0
OW 51 581 64 357 284 139 0 0
VODI 0 233 64 456 511 286 1 0
ODI 0 25 20 230 474 300 65 0
CDI 0 2 0 149 471 426 80 0
VCDI 0 2 3 71 766 3599 6248 6297

Date: 2018-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69262 15641 148 735 362 196 13 0
OW 52 550 77 558 368 70 16 0
VODI 0 74 46 510 773 175 20 0
ODI 0 0 1 87 821 394 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 10 524 946 263 0
VCDI 0 0 0 30 257 2481 7029 6539
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69262 15556 167 827 506 238 22 0
OW 52 485 43 391 308 139 30 0
VODI 0 201 46 404 609 255 64 0
ODI 0 23 15 203 624 310 79 0
CDI 0 0 1 66 586 569 142 0
VCDI 0 0 0 39 472 2751 7076 6539

Date: 2018-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68915 15842 204 1050 624 196 0 0
OW 51 232 54 477 513 148 10 0
VODI 0 47 25 261 783 359 45 0
ODI 0 3 5 69 526 445 70 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 397 797 284 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 146 1764 8049 6701
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68915 15519 188 975 684 279 13 0
OW 51 479 41 347 375 208 40 0
VODI 0 116 51 386 668 314 69 0
ODI 0 10 6 142 567 392 118 0
CDI 0 0 2 15 493 728 196 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 202 1788 8022 6701

Date: 2018-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69152 15415 203 1212 734 214 6 0
OW 51 270 42 306 645 187 21 0
VODI 0 58 27 222 701 364 59 0
ODI 0 7 3 84 361 386 76 0
CDI 0 0 1 26 402 692 232 0
VCDI 0 0 0 1 149 1597 8020 7174
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69152 15040 195 1099 824 327 26 0
OW 51 556 32 338 545 195 45 0
VODI 0 150 42 240 628 344 79 0
ODI 0 4 7 141 387 386 98 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 446 713 279 0
VCDI 0 0 0 0 162 1475 7887 7174


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