Description of algorithm
Full domain
American sector
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - American sector

Bulletin date: 2018-03-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 48 26 14 19
VCDI 0 0 0 0 115 1048 7473 37123
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 1 31 0 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 7 96 23 37 28
VCDI 0 0 0 1 184 797 7858 36803
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 21 8 0 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 57 90 29 10
VCDI 0 0 0 0 123 897 8124 36506
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 21 29 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 30 51 71 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 74 939 8966 35666
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 12 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 9 21 30 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 31 63 63 6
VCDI 0 0 0 0 67 925 8973 35666

Date: 2018-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 1 13 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 18 59 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 54 13 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 3 186 123 30
VCDI 0 0 0 0 64 1263 11603 32430
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 19 59 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 57 12 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 10 184 121 35
VCDI 0 0 0 0 57 1265 11606 32425

Date: 2018-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 210 23 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 504 210 14
VCDI 0 0 0 0 45 1217 11263 32330
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 107 3 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 218 51 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 15 404 183 18
VCDI 0 0 0 0 73 1209 11259 32326

Date: 2018-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 82 2 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 11 253 120 66
VCDI 0 0 0 0 59 1481 10659 33130
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 41 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 114 42 37
CDI 0 0 0 0 6 179 161 106
VCDI 0 0 0 0 64 1485 10578 33053

Date: 2018-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 3 30 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 0 51 9 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 40 227 90 11
VCDI 0 0 0 0 44 1416 8924 35021
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ		 OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ		 VCDI
m
o
d
e
l		 Ice free 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
OW 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
VODI 0 0 0 0 0 6 0 0
ODI 0 0 0 0 3 73 21 0
CDI 0 0 0 0 35 230 131 22
VCDI 0 0 0 0 49 1415 8871 35010


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