Description of algorithm
Full domain
  Ice concntr, edge pos
  Contingency tables
American sector
European sector
Asian sector
GODAE regions

Validation of sea ice concentration - Full domain

Bulletin date: 2018-03-22

Data source: OSI SAF N.H. sea ice concentration

Model vs. observations, sea ice class contingency tables

Date: 2018-03-16:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68733 16142 176 884 418 109 0 0
OW 52 466 82 520 381 144 2 0
VODI 0 138 34 375 672 254 36 0
ODI 0 28 11 170 565 366 94 0
CDI 0 4 2 69 528 824 320 20
VCDI 0 0 0 13 435 4758 21665 67558
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-18:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68873 16825 174 816 333 28 0 0
OW 51 497 91 542 386 100 0 0
VODI 0 222 33 480 572 213 1 0
ODI 0 84 11 244 541 308 15 0
CDI 0 57 8 193 705 662 235 29
VCDI 0 35 5 138 1321 5945 19900 66375
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-20:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69000 16899 155 666 362 117 0 0
OW 51 610 88 572 297 79 0 0
VODI 0 200 44 528 727 200 0 0
ODI 0 60 16 189 648 338 5 0
CDI 0 33 9 102 638 889 131 24
VCDI 0 5 2 41 703 5767 21718 65135
...date precedes bulletin

Date: 2018-03-22:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69615 16012 149 635 401 165 0 0
OW 58 565 89 552 305 134 0 0
VODI 5 117 35 605 654 230 0 0
ODI 2 16 12 199 575 394 46 0
CDI 0 4 2 74 623 816 214 14
VCDI 0 0 0 23 575 5999 26792 60342
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69614 16049 150 695 450 181 0 0
OW 59 528 86 505 320 120 0 0
VODI 5 119 37 590 625 242 2 0
ODI 2 15 12 198 543 353 46 0
CDI 0 3 2 81 609 836 189 14
VCDI 0 0 0 19 586 6006 26815 60342

Date: 2018-03-24:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69990 15584 136 586 405 209 0 0
OW 51 593 76 414 286 143 0 0
VODI 0 224 68 500 543 364 5 0
ODI 0 22 12 280 513 364 82 0
CDI 0 3 1 162 568 615 290 30
VCDI 0 2 3 54 806 5264 25890 61910
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69990 15574 141 621 422 197 0 0
OW 51 587 66 384 302 150 0 0
VODI 0 236 64 495 552 349 4 0
ODI 0 27 22 250 499 368 77 0
CDI 0 2 0 171 498 636 257 35
VCDI 0 2 3 75 848 5259 25929 61905

Date: 2018-03-26:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69262 15666 151 782 394 196 13 0
OW 52 550 77 589 400 70 16 0
VODI 0 74 46 530 812 186 20 0
ODI 0 0 1 101 841 619 95 0
CDI 0 0 0 17 578 1523 480 74
VCDI 0 0 0 30 308 3847 22528 66120
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69262 15579 170 862 534 238 22 0
OW 52 487 43 417 340 142 30 0
VODI 0 201 46 426 641 367 67 0
ODI 0 23 15 216 644 541 130 0
CDI 0 0 1 89 622 1026 330 50
VCDI 0 0 0 39 552 4127 22573 66144

Date: 2018-03-28:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68915 15842 204 1082 661 218 0 0
OW 51 232 54 489 535 169 10 0
VODI 0 47 25 265 805 391 45 0
ODI 0 3 5 71 542 552 72 0
CDI 0 0 0 8 438 1077 421 107
VCDI 0 0 0 0 205 3280 21336 68891
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 68915 15519 188 1004 718 302 13 0
OW 51 479 41 357 395 231 40 0
VODI 0 116 51 394 690 388 69 0
ODI 0 10 6 144 585 528 164 37
CDI 0 0 2 16 523 930 376 106
VCDI 0 0 0 0 275 3308 21222 68855

Date: 2018-03-30:

Best estimate Forecast
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69152 15415 203 1221 781 238 6 0
OW 51 270 42 308 668 210 21 0
VODI 0 58 27 222 726 423 61 0
ODI 0 7 3 84 380 462 91 0
CDI 0 0 1 26 480 946 347 13
VCDI 0 0 0 1 195 3058 20373 70478
observations
Ice free Ice free
near MIZ
OW VODI ODI CDI VCDI
near MIZ
VCDI
m
o
d
e
l
Ice free 69152 15040 195 1110 861 353 26 0
OW 51 556 32 338 573 217 48 0
VODI 0 150 42 240 657 383 88 0
ODI 0 4 7 141 413 482 133 0
CDI 0 0 0 33 509 970 472 40
VCDI 0 0 0 0 217 2932 20132 70451


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